First, the production and operation of copper smelting enterprises are basically stable. In August, the maintenance of the domestic copper smelting industry was significantly reduced, copper production increased significantly, and the overall production increased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, setting a record high for the year and the year. Under the favorable factors such as relatively sufficient raw materials, high processing fees, and short-term rebound signs of sulfuric acid prices, enterprises flexibly arrange maintenance plans, which will drive production higher than expected in the second half of the year.
In August, the spot processing cost of copper concentrate was high and volatile. As of August 27, the spot TC price of copper concentrate in the month fluctuated in the range of 93.2~93.8 US dollars/ton, and the end of the month was near 93.2 US dollars/ton, showing a downward trend as a whole.
Second, the downstream production and terminal markets are slightly differentiated. In August, the production situation of various types of copper enterprises in the downstream of copper was slightly differentiated, and some areas continued to be off-season mode, and now supply was loose and demand was sluggish; Some areas were better than expected, with a significant increase in orders. From the perspective of various categories, there are more industries involving copper rods, and the sharp rise in copper prices has suppressed downstream demand, and the operating rate has hit a new low in 7 years. Copper pipe enterprises are affected by the further decline in orders of air conditioning plants, the order situation is still poor, and the operating rate continues to fall; Copper strip industry operating rate significantly exceeded expectations, its downstream state grid, transformers and mobile phone orders have increased; In terms of copper foil, affected by the continuous growth of power battery and circuit board orders, the operating rate of lithium copper foil and electronic copper foil has increased significantly.
From the perspective of the terminal market, driven by the increase of power grid investment to a new high in 2023 and the frequent introduction of policies to encourage the development of the new energy industry, investment in the power grid continued to grow in August; Under the role of policy and enterprise stimulus measures, new energy vehicles will continue to release market demand and meet the traditional "gold nine silver ten" sales season; The season of air conditioning production and sales is nearing the end, and gradually entering the off-season, production and sales have declined slightly.
Third, copper prices fell slightly month-on-month. In August, after the high price of copper fell, there was a slight decline in the month. LME copper for three months opened at $8,840 / ton, the highest was $8,860 / ton on August 1, the lowest was down to $8,120 / ton on August 17, and closed at $8,437 / ton, down $399 / ton from the end of last month, down 4.52%.
The average price of LME copper for the month and three months was $8,351 / ton and $8,391 / ton, respectively, up 4.9% and 5.5% year-on-year, and down 1.1% and 0.9% month-on-month, respectively. The trend of the inner Shanghai copper and the outer wall is basically the same, the average price of SHFE copper in the month and three months is 68930 yuan/ton and 68307 yuan/ton, respectively, up 10.7% and 12.1% year-on-year, up 0.3% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively.
Fourth, imports of refined copper increased slightly. In July, the import volume of refined copper was 303,000 tons, a small year-on-year and month-on-month increase, an increase of 0.7% over the same period, an increase of 1.5% month-on-month, mainly because the import window of refined copper remained closed for part of this month, import profit and space are limited, basically within 1,000 yuan.
In July, recycled copper imports were 149,000 tons, down 9.7% year on year, down 12.1% month on month, mainly due to the sharp rise in overseas copper scrap prices, the cost and profit of imported copper scrap are serious, and the inflow of domestic copper scrap resources is reduced more, and the refined waste price difference makes the substitution of copper scrap for refined copper weakened, and the imports of copper scrap have declined significantly.
Overall, in August, China's copper industry sentiment index decreased slightly from the previous month. It is preliminarily expected that the prosperity index of China's copper industry will still be located in the "normal" range.
