Copper Prices Retreated On Weaker-than-expected US Jobs Data.

Shanghai copper opened low on Monday morning, continuing the fall in the overnight session, 10:15 the latest offer of 69,470 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The US employment data is weaker than expected, the market implies the risk of economic recession, and the domestic fundamental support is limited, which makes the upward space of copper prices limited, and prices may continue to recover from high levels in the short term.
Against the backdrop of the recent complex and volatile global economic situation, the US employment data released on Friday became the focus of the market. Data showing US jobs growth fell short of market expectations raised fears of a US recession, which in turn hit commodity prices including copper.
As one of the most important industrial metals, the price of copper often reflects the health of the global economy. As the US jobs data missed expectations, the market began to trade the logic of a US recession, and copper prices fell from their highs. This adjustment not only reflects market concerns about future demand, but also highlights the fragility of the global economy.
Meanwhile, the domestic market is showing a different picture. With the gradual strengthening of stable growth expectations, the positive signals of economic stability released during the two sessions have injected confidence into the market. Two-way monetary and fiscal efforts to support the real estate market, expand consumption and defuse debt risks are expected to provide strong support for economic growth.
With the recovery of demand after the holiday, the market's confidence in domestic copper demand is also gradually increasing. Under the strong support of domestic demand, copper prices have shown some resilience in the adjustment. In addition, with the rapid development of new energy fields, copper consumption has also been strongly boosted. The high growth in the field of new energy provides a broad market space for copper consumption, making copper consumption show strong resilience.
However, while the domestic market has performed relatively well, supply-side issues cannot be ignored. Copper concentrate spot processing fee TC has fallen below $20 / ton, hitting a record low. This means that the profitability of copper mining companies has been severely squeezed, which could affect future copper supply. In addition, the supply of crude copper is not loose, which will have a certain impact on the domestic supply of refined copper in the second quarter.
In terms of inventory, although domestic copper inventories continue to accumulate the trend, and the accumulation of slightly more than the same period in previous years, but with the full recovery of copper downstream consumption in late March, domestic inventories or will begin to go. At the same time, LME inventories continue to be depleted, and global copper inventories remain at historic lows. This situation shows that despite the short-term supply pressure, but in the long term, the copper market supply and demand pattern is still expected to balance.
Spot data showed that domestic copper prices fell. According to data from the Yangtze River non-ferrous Metals Network, the Yangtze River spot 1# copper price was 69,310-69,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 69,330 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
To sum up, although the US employment data is lower than expected on the copper price has a certain impact, but the domestic market's stable growth expectations and strong demand in the new energy field still provide strong support for copper prices. However, investors still need to pay close attention to the domestic and international economic situation, policy changes, and the evolution of supply and demand patterns in order to formulate reasonable investment strategies. In the coming period of time, copper prices may show increased volatility, but in the long run, its trend is still expected to maintain stable growth.