Lead Prices Are Poised For An Increase - When Will The Demand Turning Point Arrive?

On July 25, 2025, according to information from the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network, the spot market price of 1# lead in the Yangtze River region was reported at 16,850 - 16,950 yuan per ton, with an average price of 16,900 yuan. Compared to the previous day, it increased by 25 yuan. This change was influenced by multiple factors such as the macroeconomy, supply and demand, and the industrial chain:
Macro perspective: Amid the tense atmosphere of approaching US tariff deadlines on August 1st and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30, the preliminary reading of the US manufacturing PMI for July was only 49.5 (with a contraction in new orders), revealing the sluggish demand, which dragged down the overall weak and volatile performance of metals on the foreign markets; in the domestic market, it gradually digested the previous positive factors, with funds reducing positions and exiting the market, leading to overall narrow-range and sideways adjustment in price.
Supply side: Primary lead is affected by declining resource grades and environmental protection policies, resulting in low production rates; recycled lead is constrained by strict environmental regulations and difficulties in summer collection (reduction in the amount of used battery recycling), leading to tight raw material supply and making it difficult to ease the supply situation in the short term.
Demand side: Lead-acid batteries account for over 80% of the market share, and the demand for traditional vehicles has stabilized under the impact of new energy; the energy storage sector is growing but is constrained by lithium batteries; in the chemical/cable industry, demand varies due to environmental protection requirements, limiting the use of lead-containing products.
Current situation of the industrial chain: Upstream, the difficulty in obtaining raw materials and recycling used batteries has led to rising costs; midstream processing enterprises are cautious about expansion due to unstable raw materials and inventory pressure; downstream, the demand for battery replacement during the traditional peak season in summer has increased, but the emerging fields are unable to fill the gap.
Short-term forecast: Tight supply supports price for both primary and recycled lead, but the divergent demand limits the increase. The future price of lead may accumulate strength and rise. In the short term, the spot price of lead in the Yangtze River region is expected to remain in an oscillating and relatively strong range of 16,800 - 16,950 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to macro policies, trade frictions and marginal changes in supply and demand.