According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Tuesday, China imported 1.594 million tons of copper ore and concentrates in June. From January to June, China imported 10.84 million tons of copper ore and its concentrate, an increase of 3.0% year-on-year.
China's import of unwrought copper and copper in June was 656,483.0 tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper in June-June was 2,841,047.4 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%.
We believe that the unforged copper in June saw a significant year-on-year increase from the following reasons:
1) In May, the electrolytic copper import window opened for a long time, and the import profit was high. The import profit in May for a long time was more than 250 yuan/ton, and the highest even reached 640 yuan/ton; specifically, when the trader opened the window Signing a large number of orders, in addition to the influx of large quantities of overseas smelters, traders also transport electrolytic copper from the LME warehouse to the country. Since the end of April, LME copper inventories have continued to degenerate, and the total inventory has fallen from about 260,000 tons to the current 176,000 tons (July 13), of which the decline in Asian stocks is the most noticeable, from about 120,000 tons to 1.87 The relative historical low of 10,000, the inventory in the Asian region at the end of June decreased by 58,000 tons from the end of May. Looking at the economic recovery of Asian countries, my country is in a leading position, and the economic recovery has maintained a stable and good tone. The economic restart of other countries and regions is slightly behind, so most of the copper stocks reduced by Asian depots are shipped to China. However, due to factors such as shipping schedule, a large amount of imported copper was not cleared to the domestic market until June. According to SMM, there are irregular problems in the shipment of electrolytic copper in Chile and Peru. Some ships that were originally scheduled to arrive in May were delayed until June. The increase in imports of electrolytic copper in May was suppressed and transferred to June.
2) In June, the domestic spot market saw high water prices. In June, the average monthly price of Shanghai Pingshui Copper was 69.5 yuan/ton, and the average monthly price of good copper was 104.5 yuan/ton. In June, the average monthly price of Guangdong Pingshui Copper was 179.5 yuan/ton. Tons, the average monthly price of good copper is 204 yuan / ton, which is much higher than the long single price; from this, high water is another important reason for importers to increase customs clearance.
3) The increase in the import volume of blister copper and copper ingots in June is also another key factor for the increase in the import volume of unwrought copper and copper materials. At the beginning of the year, the amount of crude copper and copper ingots that can be exported by countries affected by the epidemic was limited, but since May, especially in South Africa and Namibia (China’s imports of crude copper from the above two countries accounted for more than 45%), deregulation, The export volume of blister copper and copper ingots began to increase, and the shipping source mentioned above gradually flowed into the country from the middle of June, taking into account the shipping period of more than one month.
Looking forward to July, we believe that the import volume of unwrought copper in July will be lower than that in June (the time for the import window to open is reduced), but it will still increase year-on-year.
The main reason why copper concentrate imports continued to decline is that South America is the main source of copper concentrate imports in China. The physical ton imports from Chile and Peru accounted for 54% of China's total copper concentrate imports in May; However, the epidemic situation in the above two countries has been controlled very badly. The local mines’ operating rate is not high, and even some mines are still being closed, and the port’s delivery efficiency is low. These are important factors that cause the supply of copper concentrates to be tight. Imports of concentrate will continue to decline. (SMM)
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