An Indonesian Minister Said That Indonesia Will Set Its Coal Production Quota For 2026 At Around 600 Million Tons And Will Adjust The Nickel Quota.

Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif said that the country may approve a coal production quota of "about" 600 million tons for 2026 and will adjust the nickel quota based on industry demand. Although Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, usually exceeds its production quota, this year's quota is still lower than last year's 790 million tons. In mineral-rich Indonesia, all miners must submit an annual production plan (RKAB) to the government for approval. Arifin said that the reduction in the quota is aimed at supporting the prices of Indonesia's mineral products. Arifin also said that similar measures will be taken to support nickel prices, but he did not disclose the 2026 quota level and reiterated that the quota will be adjusted based on the demand of local smelters. He told reporters, "We are currently calculating the industry's capacity and we will be able to meet these capacity demands." The ministry has not yet provided specific data on nickel production in 2025. The Indonesian Nickel Industry Association (FINI) estimates that the demand for nickel ore from domestic smelters in Indonesia will increase from about 300 million tons in 2025 to about 340 million to 350 million tons in 2026, with new capacity expected to come online this year. Due to concerns over a decline in Indonesian nickel production, global nickel prices soared in December. On Thursday, January 8, 2026, nickel prices fell sharply, ending the upward trend that began in December last year. The Indonesian government's refusal to disclose its 2026 mining production quota has raised concerns about a "relaxation" of supply restrictions. The most actively traded nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 6.14% at 136,440 yuan per ton (19,538.32 US dollars), having dropped as much as 7.96% to 133,800 yuan per ton during the session. As of 07:00 GMT, the three-month nickel futures contract on the London Metal Exchange fell 4.05% to 17,170 US dollars per ton, having dropped as much as 5.92% to 16,835 US dollars per ton. This sharp decline ended the more than 30% increase since December last year. Previously, the Indonesian government's plan to cut the 2026 mining production quota (known as RKAB in Indonesian) to support nickel prices had driven up nickel prices. Arifin Tasrif, Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, held a press conference on Thursday. He reaffirmed the government's plan to cut the nickel quota. The quota will be adjusted based on the demand of local smelters. Investors are skeptical of the Indonesian government's policy. They are worried that the government may eventually revoke the quota reduction plan, leading to a decline in the nickel price rally. Inventory data from LME registered warehouses show that nickel supply is abundant. An inflow of 20,088 tons has pushed inventories to their highest level since June 2018. Analysts said that the overall base metal market is weak due to profit-taking after a general rise. The most actively traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 101,220 yuan per ton, having dropped as low as 100,040 yuan per ton during the session. The three-month benchmark copper contract on the LME fell 0.62% to 12,820 US dollars per ton. Despite a moderation in profit-taking, copper prices remain high. This is mainly due to supply concerns caused by mine disruptions and regional market turmoil due to US tariff concerns. Other base metal prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell by 2.89% (aluminum), 1.36% (zinc), 2.01% (lead), and 1.83% (tin). Other metal prices on the LME fell by 0.57% (aluminum), 1.36% (lead), and 0.39% (tin). Zinc was the only metal to rise, up 0.08%.