Argus Analysis: Supply Shortage Intensifies, Global Tungsten Market Surges Across The Board

London, January 28th (Argus) - The global shortage of tungsten product supply is intensifying, pushing prices to record highs and showing no signs of abating. The decline in global tungsten concentrate production, the extremely low levels of inventory, and the limited issuance of export licenses in China have all contributed to this sharp increase in prices. A trader said: "We see a tungsten metal supply gap of approximately 13,000 tons in the Western market." A second source stated: "The current shortage is more severe than ever before; there are no quotations in the market." Since 2026, tungsten prices have repeatedly reached new highs. Due to extremely tight inventories in Europe, the price of tungsten concentrate in Rotterdam soared to $920-$980 per tonne on January 27th, up 252% from the same period last year. The increase in the price of concentrate is driving up the price of European ammonium tungstate (APT), and export controls have further exacerbated the supply shortage. The current price of APT in Europe is $1,200-$1,300 per tonne, up 257% year-on-year. China supplies 80% of the global total. The payment ratio is also rising. Industry sources said that due to increased raw material costs, the payment price for concentrate by consumers has reached 85-90% of the APT price, compared to 70% previously. The price of APT in Europe is typically the benchmark for such negotiations. Consumers downstream of the supply chain are also feeling the pressure. On January 27th, the price of tungsten ingots with a minimum purity of 99.9% delivered at Rotterdam warehouses, as assessed by Argus, was $180-$200 per kilogram, stable for the week but up from $135-$155 per kilogram at the beginning of the year. The scarcity of export licenses is due to the government's closure of small-scale mines and the limited development of new mines. The mining quota for 2025 was reduced from 62,000 tons in 2024 to 58,000 tons. According to calculations by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China's tungsten concentrate exports (by metal equivalent) in 2025 were 13,893 tons, a 27% decrease year-on-year. Customs data shows that China's tungsten concentrate imports increased by 38% in 2025 to 22,653 tons. Due to the scarcity of APT export licenses, Western buyers are competing for raw materials. A buyer recently obtained an export license of 100 tons of APT, but the seller still needs to purchase concentrate to produce the product. It is expected that the goods will not be shipped until March. "We need 500 tons, so we will apply for a new license," the importer said. Japan seeks raw material supply. China began implementing an export ban on dual-use items to Japan at the beginning of the year, further adding pressure to the market supply. Among key minerals with dual uses, tungsten is particularly important for Japan. Japan has no domestic tungsten ore, and its tungsten products rely heavily on China. From January to November 2025, Japan imported 669 tons of APT, accounting for 55% of its total imports of 1,209 tons. Japanese buyers are seeking tungsten scrap, but it is also difficult to purchase globally. Market sources said that Japan is expanding its tungsten recycling capacity to cope with the sharp decline in China's exports, but any significant capacity increase may take several years.