BHP recently released its economic and commodity market outlook. 'Bottlenecks in global logistics, non-energy industrial products, and downstream manufacturing have eased significantly over the past six months,' said Kai Ma, BHP's vice president of market and economic analysis. But labor supply remains tight and will be the most pressing inflation concern in 2023. The risks associated with energy costs are now balanced and no longer on the upside. While the world economic environment remains complex, the outlook for demand has brightened in the short term compared with the beginning of the conflict.
Looking ahead, Ma said population growth, urbanization, the construction of decarbonized infrastructure and the improvement of people's living standards will continue to drive world demand for steel, non-ferrous metals and fertilizers in the coming decades.
'China is expected to remain the largest contributor to global economic growth in industrial output and fixed investment in the 2020s and beyond,' Mr. Ma said. China remains a vast market for future-oriented commodities.
According to BHP's preliminary forecast, China's steel production in 2023 and 2024 will remain in the 1 billion to 1.1 billion tons range. Chinese steel has been at this level for the past four years, and BHP expects the peak range to extend into the fifth or sixth year.
"At 8 tonnes per capita, China's continuing steel stock is still lower than that of developed countries." Mr Ma said.
In nickel, BHP sees some of the main uncertainties in the short term as: the outlook for global growth; Electric vehicle sales prospects; Whether there can be new process innovation in China-Indonesia nickel industry; Economically feasible processes to convert surplus non-primary nickel into pure nickel.
