Since August, the Southeast copper industry fire law plant has exceeded the anode copper output task for three months in a row, sounding the horn to sprint the annual output target and prepare for annual maintenance.
Into the fourth quarter, the fire law factory in the overtime sprint annual output at the same time, overall grasp the annual centralized maintenance work, to "safety, environmental protection, quality, progress, saving, standard" 12-word overhaul policy orderly promote the work, clear personnel responsibilities and matters of the process, do "group, classification, fixed, timing, quality", to ensure the smooth completion of the annual repair task.
MSC at the end of the sprint, southeast of copper fire as a legal person has ambition of the miracle, technically confident style, will be as the lead, in the spirit of the party's two big energetic energy and yong yi, efforts to open up new era new journey on the development of copper industry xintiandi. (Liu Song)
Funeng Futures: How long can low inventories support copper prices?
Overseas macro expectations repeated, the Federal Reserve December interest rate hike internal disagreements. Short term low inventories remain supportive for copper prices, but against the backdrop of high inflation, we believe the rate hike path remains tight and copper still faces macro pressure. From the fundamental point of view, after December, as smelter capacity climbs, import volume increases and demand enters the off-season, supply and demand becomes loose, and the downward pressure of copper price increases. Therefore, we can consider the layout of Shanghai copper 2301 contract short order on every rally.
In early October, on the back of very low copper inventories, Shanghai copper was narrowly constrained. On September 30, there were only 30,000 tons of copper inventory, far less than the delivery demand, leading to the stronger copper price in the front month than in the far month, the monthly difference between 10 and 11 contracts once reached as high as 1,800 yuan/ton. Later, due to the large monthly difference to attract smelters to participate in the delivery, Shanghai copper inventory increased significantly, the tight stock crisis eased. As of Oct. 21, copper inventories stood at 89,566 tons, still at historically low levels.
Europe's largest copper producer has urged the LME to ban Russian copper
Aurubis, Europe's largest copper producer, wants the London Metal Exchange (LME) to impose an immediate ban on Russian metals as Western consumers shun the metal to prevent the exchange's delivery warehouses from being flooded with Russian metals, the chief executive of Aurubis said on Tuesday.
The West has imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia since the conflict, but so far has not imposed any restrictions on buying Russian metals. But industry insiders worry that Russian metal could flood the LME's delivery warehouses as western consumers shun it.
'The supply of Russian [copper] cathodes to LME delivery warehouses has to stop,' Mr. Harlins said, 'because the company's customers show no interest in receiving Russian metal even without Western sanctions.' He worries that inventory will pile up in LME warehouses, distorting the functioning of the LME system.
With some contracts with Russian suppliers due to expire at the end of the year, Mr Harlins said he believed the LME needed to act quickly. The LME has already launched a discussion paper on the possibility of banning the trading and storage of Russian aluminium, nickel and copper in its system. Russia supplied the EU with nearly 292,000 tons of copper in 2021. Last year, the EU imported more than 801,000 tonnes of copper.
Merya commodities: Again before the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates copper price medium - term pressure
In October, the copper price fluctuated in the high range, which was mainly manifested by two characteristics: near strong and far weak, inside strong and outside weak, and the two characteristics were amplified in October. After Shanghai copper experienced a round of "soft closing", the monthly gap was in an abnormal state. Although the volume of warehouse orders rose sharply and the high price and high premium of copper produced a consumption restraint on the downstream, the problem of low inventory was not completely solved, and the process of domestic supply and demand from tight to loose was slow. In addition, the macro trading logic has not finished, but the expectation is still repeated, resulting in no obvious trend of copper price. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in early November approaching again, we believe the upward pressure on copper prices is still greater than the downward support. We do not change our judgment that the medium-term fundamentals are weakening and copper prices are under pressure.
Hualian futures: copper fundamental support or gradual weakening
Since June this year, the copper price out of a large first down after rising trend. Copper prices tumbled in June when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points. The Shanghai Copper Weighted Index dropped from the closing price of 72,690 yuan per ton on June 9 to 53,367 yuan per ton on July 15, a decline of 19,323 yuan per ton, or 26.58%, in just 5 weeks. Since then, the market has weakened the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in July, coupled with the gradual effect of China's counter-cyclical policy, copper demand has gradually improved, supporting the gradual recovery of copper prices. Since mid-August, the Shanghai copper weighted index has basically traded between 59,500 yuan and 63,000 yuan/ton. Last week, the copper price again approached the upper edge of the 63,000 yuan/ton range, showing a strong trend. However, looking ahead to the market trend in the fourth quarter of this year, it is expected that after the peak demand season in October, copper fundamental support or is expected to gradually weaken, beware of falling prices.
High inflation and monetary tightening in the US and Europe will slow global growth sharply
On October 13, the Labor Department released its September consumer Price Index (CPI). Us CPI rose 8.2% y/y in September versus 8.1% exp. & 8.3% exp. Month-on-month gain of 0.4% vs. market expectations of 0.2% vs. 0.1%. With inflation still high, the Fed will not be able to stop raising rates for a while. FedWatch data shows a 96.3 per cent chance of a 75bp rate hike in November and a 71.5 per cent chance of a 75bp rate hike in December. Market expectations for the Fed's rate by the end of the year have risen to 4.5-4.75%.
Local time on October 19, the euro zone and the UK September consumer price index (CPI) data. The final euro zone CPI rose 9.9% y/y in September vs. 9.1% last vs. 10% expected; UK CPI rose 10.1% y/y in September versus 9.9% last and 10% expected. At present, Europe is facing a huge energy crisis. Due to the shortage of natural gas and oil, the price of electricity in European countries has risen sharply, and some countries have even increased by 10 times of the same period last year. As winter approaches, the need for heating is bound to push up energy prices further, which in turn will push prices even higher in Europe.
Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 copper price forecast and expects the metal to top $10,000 again in 2024
October 24 news: Goldman Sachs released a report, predicting that the average price of copper in 2023 will be 8325 USD/ton, lower than the previous forecast of 8800 USD/ton.
Copper prices are expected to average $10,750 / t in 2024, down from the earlier forecast of $14,000 / t. The average price forecast for 2025 remains at $15,000 / mt.
Goldman Sachs said the copper market will face a severe shortage of 154,000 tonnes by the end of 2022 and a small surplus of 169,000 tonnes in the refined copper market by 2023.
China imports 509,954.1 tons of unwrought copper and copper materials in September - General Administration of Customs
China imported 509,954.1 tons of unwrought copper and copper in September, up 9.8% from a year earlier to 4,413,402.2 tons in the January-September period, the General Administration of Customs said Oct. 24.
China imports 2.273 million tons of copper ore and concentrate in September - General Administration of Customs
China imported 2.273 million tons of copper ore and its concentrate in September, up 8.8% from a year earlier to 1,889.5 tons from January to September, the General Administration of Customs said Oct. 24.
