Dips to do more trading ideas
January 25 news;
Copper price trend upward has not ended, this year is expected to hit a new high, Shanghai copper above the 65000 yuan/ton, 70000 yuan/ton two target levels;
Lentong focus on $8000 / t, $8800 / t two targets.
After entering 2021, most of the non-ferrous plate to finishing.
In the short term, the seasonal weakening of consumption before the Spring Festival is relatively certain. The downstream processing industry will have a holiday this week, and the metal will gradually enter the storage stage, which will suppress the price. It is expected that the copper price will be difficult to get rid of the adjustment pattern before the Spring Festival.
In the medium term, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to withdraw its liquidity policy within this year, the replenishing cycle of overseas manufacturing industry and the expectation of Joe Biden's fiscal stimulus to provide actual demand, copper prices are still in an upward cycle and are expected to reach a new high within this year.
Weak domestic consumption is the main short - term negative
The dollar index has bottomed out since early January as expectations of U.S. pandemic prevention and fiscal stimulus intensified again, creating a negative outlook for dollar-priced nonferrous metals.
From the perspective of copper fundamentals, domestic processing enterprises started the Spring Festival holiday at the end of January, the spot market turnover is weak, the downstream consumption seasonal weakness is relatively certain, it is expected that refined copper will begin to accelerate the accumulation of stocks at the end of January.
Weakness of downstream demand is the biggest negative for copper fundamentals before the Spring Festival, which is also an important reason for the rapid fall of copper prices after the high price at the beginning of the month.
However, in the short term, it is difficult for copper to adjust in depth. This is because on the one hand, overseas stocks continue to decline, LME copper stocks have dropped to a historical low near 80,000 tons, and South American shipping delays have not been completely solved, copper concentrate supply gap is still there, low stocks and weak supply of copper prices form a strong support.
On the other hand, the emergency economic rescue plan after Biden took office, the market is optimistic about the subsequent fiscal stimulus, the market is optimistic about overseas copper demand in the long term, and the bulls are still looking for opportunities to buy on the dips.
Therefore, as a whole, before the Spring Festival copper prices will continue to oscillate at a high level, the upper and lower space are limited.
Copper concentrate increment is limited in the first half of the year
Longer term, copper is still on an uptrend, with a high probability of another high in 2021.
In 2021, the replenishment cycle of global manufacturing industry driven by the US real estate cycle will start, which is expected to be the biggest highlight of demand growth.
Domestic credit growth is expected to peak, but it is difficult to appear cliff type contraction, real estate, infrastructure, automobile and other traditional areas of consumption is stable, new energy vehicles, new infrastructure and other related areas of growth is predictable, copper prices play a strong support.
At the same time, the US monetary policy is difficult to exit this year, high liquidity combined with global real demand growth driven, the inflation logic will continue, which is the most important basis for us to judge copper will continue the upward trend.
In addition, copper market supply conditions also support its bull market continuation.
Some statistics 2021 copper concentrate production, production and new production volume will exceed one million tons, concentrate supply large recovery brings to the market concerns, but from the perspective on the rhythm, because overseas vaccination was slow, South America and other source outbreak still raging, the second quarter after entering the winter in the southern hemisphere, is likely to slow further increase the rhythm of the production in mines, therefore, in the first half of the copper supply increment co., LTD., is expected to supply release negative influence may should be considered in the second half of the year or later.
To sum up, based on the logic of monetary policy continued easing, actual demand growth and limited supply increment, we believe that the upward trend of copper price has not ended, and is expected to reach a new high in the year, Shanghai copper above the 65000 yuan/ton, 70,000 yuan/ton two target levels;
Lentong focus on $8000 / t, $8800 / t two targets.
In the first quarter of the weak consumption, the epidemic repeated and the pressure of the rebound of the dollar, copper prices or back adjustment, recommended attention to the 60-day moving average.
Operation, before the Spring Festival proposed to oscillate ideas, you can choose to sell the near month wide strand-type options to collect time value, unilateral long-term operation should grasp the full callback after the opportunity to do.
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