According to Bloomberg, Zambia's copper mine production will fall more than 10% this year to the lowest level in 14 years, dealing a major blow to its revenue and economic growth.
The Ministry of Finance and National Planning said in a report this week that copper mine output would fall to 682,431 tonnes. Copper production accounts for more than 70% of export earnings.
That would be the lowest level since 2009 and mark the third year in a row that production has fallen after peaking in 2020, although copper prices remain high.
The downturn will affect economic growth, which the Finance ministry expects to slow to 2.7 percent this year from 4.7 percent in 2022.
In the first half of this year, revenue from mineral royalties was just 23 percent of the target, another obstacle to the government's ambition to increase annual production to 3 million tons by 2031.
The decline in copper production comes as Zambia struggles to restructure its foreign debt since becoming Africa's first pandez-era sovereign default in 2020.
Last month, Zambia reached a breakthrough deal with bilateral creditors led by China and France to modify a $6.3 billion loan agreement.
A report released this month by the International Monetary Fund said weather-related shocks and falling copper revenues, including production shortfalls, were the biggest risks to Zambia's economy.
Zambian President Hichilema's government has been struggling to find a solution for two large copper mining companies after his predecessor took them over after fighting with their owners.
Fixing the Mopani copper mine and Vedanta Resources' Konkola mine could "significantly boost copper and cobalt production," the IMF said. The Konkola copper mine has been in provisional liquidation for more than four years.
Mopani has struggled since the detained government bought it from Glencore more than two years ago through a state-controlled company.
Canada's First Quantum Mining company accounts for more than half of Zambia's copper production.
