Copper prices in the third quarter to maintain the oscillation trend, London copper continued to run in the 9000-9700 USD/ton interval, Shanghai copper in 66000-72000 yuan/ton interval oscillation, Shanghai copper trend is stronger than London copper. The macro and fundamentals of the third quarter and market cognition are basically consistent, copper prices waiting for the direction of choice, copper prices in the fourth quarter or out of the first Yang after suppression.
On the macro level, the market's anxiety about the monetary policy shift in Europe and the United States has been significantly alleviated. With the release of the monthly monetary policy minutes in Europe and the United States, the market no longer equates the contraction with the interest rate hike. Meanwhile, the impact of the global epidemic on the economy and the market has been weakening, and the impact of the macro market on the copper price has shown signs of weakening.
On the supply side, the instability of overseas mine operations increased in the third quarter. Several mines in South America held wage negotiations in August, but due to the short duration of mine strikes and the striking copper mines reached wage agreements in early September, there was no significant impact on copper prices.
In terms of smelting, in the fourth quarter, there will be maintenance plans for the smelting capacity of 1.73 million tons of Jiangxi Copper, China Copper Southeast Copper, Heilongjiang Zijin Copper and other smelters, which is estimated to affect the output of 121,200 tons. The maintenance efforts are significantly increased compared with the third quarter. At present, many provinces in China are still rationing electricity. Under the background of "double carbon" strategy, some smelting enterprises believe that the rationing will last for a long time. At present, domestic exchanges and bonded area copper inventories are far lower than the same period in previous years, if imported copper can not effectively make up for the domestic refined copper output gap, the fourth quarter of the domestic supply will be tight.
In terms of inventory, domestic inventory continues to be at a low level and the import window has been opened several times in the third quarter, but domestic import is not active. The import volume of domestic refined copper in July and August is less than 260,000 tons, which is a certain gap compared with the same period in previous years. In accordance with the national food and reserve bureau's announcement, cast store from July, and continued to the end, but as a result of a month behind reserves are not big, get more storage effect in promoting the downstream demand, rather than improving domestic supply tension, if at the end of the reserves appear no substantial increase, I'm afraid is difficult to make up for smelting plant maintenance supply.
