On Friday, the main contract of copper in Shanghai opened lower and then moved within a narrow range. As of 10:55, the latest price was reported at 78,380 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton, or 0.19%. The current market sentiment is still severely fragmented amid multiple contradictions. The "siphon effect" of the US tariff policy and the "expectation gap" of the Fed's interest rate cut have formed a complex resonance, accelerating the transformation of the global copper supply chain from a "cost pricing" model to a "policy game" dominated structural change.
Data from the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network shows that the spot price of 1# copper in the Yangtze River region is reported at 78,600 yuan per ton, down 210 yuan per ton compared to last Friday. The spot premium is reported at a premium of 80 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton from last Friday.
On July 9th, US President Trump announced that starting from August 1st, a 50% tariff would be imposed on imported refined copper and semi-finished products, with the aim of "rebuilding the dominance of the domestic copper industry". This policy is like a "shock bomb" thrown into the global market. Within just a few days, fluctuations in copper prices, adjustments to supply chains, and geopolitical conflicts intertwined, presenting a resource-grabbing battle that affected many parties. .
The "roller coaster" of the futures market: Hidden risks lurking behind the rush
On the day the news was announced, the copper futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) soared sharply, with an intraday increase of over 13%, setting a record for the largest single-day fluctuation in history. Although the price declined in the following days, as of July 12, the main contract of COMEX copper remained at a high of $5.584 per pound, reaching a weekly peak of $5.8955 per pound. In contrast, the copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fluctuated under pressure, with a cumulative weekly decline of 2.04%, at $9,663 per ton. Analysts pointed out that the "picking-up" trend in the United States is coming to an end. After the implementation of tariffs in August and in the wake of the traditional consumption off-season, the copper price may experience a short-term correction, but the tight supply from mines and the low inventory situation still support the bottom price.
Supply Chain "Major Reorganization": South American Suppliers Shift to Asia The Vulnerability of the US Domestic Copper Industry Is Exposed to the Full Extent - There are only two active smelters in the country. The refined copper production in 2024 is 850,000 tons, but 810,000 tons need to be imported, with 70% of it coming from Chile. Chilean President Borrice responded forcefully on July 11th: "Copper is the cause of the Chilean people. We will unite to defend our resource sovereignty." Canadian Industry Minister Melanie Joly condemned the tariffs as "illegal" and threatened countermeasures. Under the shadow of policies, the global trade flow has quietly changed. The request for copper shipments from LME Asian warehouses increased by 93,000 tons, marking the largest single-week decline since 2013. Chinese smelters accelerated the transfer of refined copper to LME Asian warehouses to avoid the sharp increase in export costs to the US in the future. Macquarie analyst Alice Fox warned: "If the semi-finished product tariffs are implemented, the US military and power sectors will face supply disruption risks. It will take seven years for local processors to fill the 800,000-ton capacity gap."
Social costs soar: The rate of copper theft cases has increased faster than the price of copper. The high price of copper has created a black market chain. Criminal gangs in the United States have targeted copper materials during transportation. The number of cases of trucks transporting copper being stolen has soared by 61% year-on-year. The Wall Street Journal reported that an entire shipment of copper was robbed on a Texas highway, with losses exceeding one million dollars. Risk assessment agency Verisk CargoNet pointed out that the number of copper theft cases in the logistics industry in the United States and Canada will increase by 26% in 2024, and the number of unreported cases in the first half of 2025 may be far higher than this figure.
