The global economy began to show signs of weakening at the end of the third quarter. The positive factors of the overseas macro environment began to weaken, the economic environment in Europe and the United States was very unstable, and the United States government encountered a shutdown crisis, which made the overall development of the global economy show a downward trend. Against this backdrop, global monetary policy is also beginning to change.
From the perspective of monetary policy, the range of interest rate highs has been relatively limited, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once this year. This could have profound implications for the global economy, especially for economies that are highly dependent on interest income. More worryingly, overseas inflation remains difficult to contain and geopolitical conflicts continue to simmering, which will lead to a reassessment of liquidity, the duration of high interest rates, and credit risks, greatly increasing the uncertainty about economic development next year.
From the perspective of the global copper market, this market is also undergoing a series of changes. The disturbance at the mine end gradually weakened, and the spot processing cost of copper concentrate rebounded. The certainty of incremental supply is stronger than the certainty of demand recovery. Due to factors such as reduced maintenance and increased output at the end of the year, the production level of domestic and foreign smelters remained at a high level. More copper inflows from overseas are expected, and a small expansion of the surplus is expected in the fourth quarter, which will lead to a small increase in domestic inventories.
However, a shortage of scrap copper has kept prices low, which is good for refined copper. Because the price difference between scrap copper and refined copper may lead to increased demand for refined copper. On the demand side, overseas demand has been affected by the uncertain economic outlook, dampening investment confidence and limiting some exports. The traditional "gold nine silver ten" peak season in China may be difficult to achieve, and the growth of demand is mainly concentrated in new energy vehicles and emerging scenery fields.
In general, the global economic downturn, the unstable economic environment in Europe and the United States, the US government shutdown crisis, the uncontrollable overseas inflation and ongoing geopolitical conflicts and other factors have brought a lot of uncertainties and challenges to the global economic development. However, despite these challenges, the global copper market is still adjusting itself to the changing market environment. In the future, we will pay close attention to these changes and conduct in-depth research and analysis.
