London, February 25th (Argus) - The latest data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) shows that the global refined copper market will initially have a surplus of 380,000 tons in 2025, significantly higher than the 69,000 tons in 2024.
After adjusting based on the estimated changes in China's bonded inventory, the surplus reached 437,000 tons, compared to 78,000 tons in the same period last year, indicating a more significant growth in refined production compared to usage.
The ICSG stated that global refined copper production increased by 4.2% to 285.4 million tons, mainly driven by a 3.9% increase in primary production and a 5.8% increase in secondary production from scrap copper.
This growth was driven by China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which together account for approximately 57% of the global refining output, with a total growth rate of about 9%. ICSG stated that excluding these two countries, global refining output decreased by around 1.8%.
In Asia (excluding China), production decreased by 3.7%. Due to maintenance shutdowns in Japan, the country's production dropped by 8.2%, along with the closure of the Pasar炼油 plant in the Philippines. The Amman and Manyar smelters in Indonesia started operations this year, but their production was affected by operational challenges and the interruption at the Grasberg copper mine. With the increase in utilization rates and the expansion of Adani's refining capacity, India's refining production increased by 19%.
The ICSG stated that Chile's refined copper production decreased by 10%, and during the maintenance shutdown period, the electrolysis output of concentrate decreased by 16%, and the SX-EW output dropped by 6.8%.
The output of the mines has been affected and constrained by various factors.
In 2025, global mine production will increase by approximately 1% to 2313 million tons. The production of concentrate will remain largely unchanged, while the production of SX-EW will increase by 3%.
The ICSG stated that although the new projects' increased production capacity supported the growth, the lower grades and operational accidents limited the overall output. The organization emphasized that the disruptions at Kamoa in May and at Grasberg in September were significant limiting factors.
The output of mines in Chile decreased by 1.6% due to the fact that the production increases at Escondida, Centinela, Mantos Copper and Codelco were offset by the decreases at Collahuasi, Los Pelambres and Quebrada Blanca. The output in Peru increased by 1.2%, with the growth at Las Bambas, Toromocho, Quellaveco and Marcobre offsetting the declines in other regions.
With the support of Tenke/Kisanfu and Mutanda, the output of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is estimated to have increased by 6%, despite a 11% decline in Kamoa's output following the earthquake. Due to the expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project, the concentrate output of Mongolia soared by 37%, while Indonesia's output dropped by approximately 43%.
Consumption has increased but has lagged behind supply.
According to the data from ICSG, the global apparent consumption of refined copper is expected to increase by approximately 3% in 2025, reaching 281.6 million tons.
China's apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded and unreported inventories) increased by approximately 4%, but net refined imports dropped by 15% as imports decreased by 5% while exports soared by 74%. The organization stated that China currently accounts for approximately 58% of global refined copper usage.
Outside China, the usage volume increased by approximately 2%. The growth in certain parts of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa offset the weak demand in the European Union and Japan.
Monthly data shows that the trade surplus has increased towards the end of the year. In December last year, the refined production reached 2.43 million tons, while the consumption was 2.26 million tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 173,000 tons. The global refined inventory at the end of the year rose from 1.399 million tons at the end of 2024 to 1.776 million tons.
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