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Recently, the US government shutdown has lasted for 36 days, breaking the record set since 1879 and resembling a huge rock dropped into a calm lake, causing ripples throughout the global financial market. Trump raged to abolish "blocking of proceedings", while the Republicans remained silent collectively. The Supreme Court hastily convened to hear the legality of "comprehensive tariffs", and the justices collectively questioned whether the president's power had expanded. This series of events made the political situation in the United States increasingly confusing. The economic data for the US in October added fuel to the fire. ADP's small non-farm payrolls increased by 42,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 28,000; the ISM non-manufacturing PMI in October soared to 52.4, reaching the highest level since February this year. After the data was released, the market immediately buzzed with "hawkish" voices, with the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates dropping sharply from 95% last week to 62%, and it even dropped to 58% on Wednesday. The US dollar index reached a high of 100.36 during the session, setting a new high since May 29th; the 10-year US Treasury yield soared by 1.86% and closed at 4.16%, reaching the highest level since October 7th. These series of changes have led global capital to pour into safe-haven assets, while the commodity market is under great pressure. At the same time, domestic manufacturing activities continued to contract, like pouring cold water on the precious metals market, suggesting that the recovery of terminal demand is weak and unable to effectively boost metal prices. In such a complex macro environment, the precious metals market seems to be in the center of a storm, facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities. Copper: Supply disruption and the "tug-of-war" between demand and the off-season - Copper prices "stand firm" like a pine tree. Supply side: Overseas production cuts expectations and domestic supply tightness support. On the supply side, Chile's Codelco lowered its 2025 production forecast from 134 - 137 million tons to 131 - 134 million tons. Recently, some overseas mining companies have also lowered their production and sales estimates, and market concerns about supply tightness continue to rise, constantly providing support for copper prices. Market data shows that in October, the decline in electrolytic copper production was limited, but the spot processing fee for domestic copper concentrate remained around -40 US dollars, clearly reflecting that the supply tightness pattern has not changed and still provides solid support for copper prices. Demand side: The double test of high prices and the off-season. The situation on the demand side is not optimistic. Previously, copper prices were high and demand was transitioning to the off-season. As of the beginning of the week, domestic copper social inventory continued to accumulate, suggesting that downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness was limited when facing high prices. However, recently, copper prices have experienced a high-level correction, with the spot premium slightly warming up, and yesterday (Wednesday), the Shanghai copper position decreased and fell to a relatively low level, prompting spot buyers to bargain for a deal and maintain a low inventory level.