Recently, the price of lithium carbonate futures has continued to fall, which has caused widespread concern in the market and the industry. On Monday (November 27), the main contract of lithium carbonate 2401 fell below 120,000 yuan/ton, touching the limit of 7%. Behind this phenomenon, it not only reveals the current situation of the supply and demand relationship of the lithium carbonate industry, but also indicates possible industrial adjustments and changes in the future.
From the point of view of supply and demand, the excess phenomenon of lithium carbonate industry has begun to emerge. It is predicted that by 2024, the global supply of lithium carbonate will exceed demand by nearly 200,000 tons. This means that despite the current decline in lithium carbonate prices, the market is likely to return to supply and demand balance in the next few years as new capacity comes online and demand grows.
This does not mean that the current price fall is without problems. In fact, this oversupply and demand situation is the main reason for the current price decline. In the case of the imbalance between supply and demand in the market, some high-cost lithium mining companies may face survival difficulties. At this time, through the decline in the price of lithium carbonate to break the high cost of lithium mineral energy, so as to carry out production capacity clearance, has become the mainstream view of the current shorts.
The purpose of this strategy is to eliminate some high-cost lithium mineral energy when the price of lithium carbonate is too low, so as to re-achieve the balance of supply and demand in the market. However, this does not mean that all companies will be able to weather the storm smoothly. In fact, only those enterprises that can adapt to market changes and optimize production costs can have an advantage in the future competition.
For the industry, the decline in lithium carbonate futures prices is not entirely unhelpful. It can prompt enterprises to pay more attention to technological innovation and cost control, and promote the technological progress and industrial upgrading of the entire industry. In addition, the decline in prices will also increase the demand of downstream industries, thus stimulating the development of the entire industrial chain.
