Recently, the US Federal Reserve interest rate marginal pressure relief, Indonesia once again out of the export of nickel products tax, nickel price there is overfall rebound demand, Shanghai nickel price of the highest breakthrough 180,000 yuan/ton. As of yesterday, Shanghai nickel prices maintained at 165,000 ~ 182,000 yuan/ton range wide finishing.
Indonesia is proposing a tax on nickel exports
But the practical impact will be limited
Based on the statements of Indonesian officials since this year, the author roughly speculated that Indonesia intends to impose export duties of 2%-3% on nickel-iron and nickel-pig iron, which may be adjusted with the change of nickel price. The tax change could come as early as the third quarter. At present, the arrival price of ferronickel in Indonesia and the domestic ferronickel price are around 1256 yuan/nickel point. If 2%-3% tariff is imposed, the domestic ferronickel will have more advantages. Due to the relatively low cost of nickel-iron in Indonesia, there is a certain room for tax increase, and the possibility of making a profit is not excluded.
From the perspective of price analysis, Indonesia imposes tariffs on ferronickel, which directly leads to an increase in the cost of converting stainless steel and new energy NPI to high ice nickel production. However, the current stainless steel market is depressed, the NPI production process in the field of new energy is not the mainstream production process, so the impact of the tax is limited. In addition, the current premium of electrolysis nickel to ferronicel is much higher than the historical average. The impact of the levy on ferronickel prices is also limited due to an overall surplus of ferronickel in Indonesia, where supply continues to grow.
The tax policy may lead to the redistribution of profits of Indonesian nickel-iron plants, import traders and domestic nickel-iron plants, but its impact on the current trend of nickel price is relatively limited, and attention needs to be paid to the actual implementation of future policies.
Wet process intermediate
Gradually replacing nickel bean production
In December last year, Qingshan Group realized the production conversion of nickel-iron - high-ice nickel production line, breaking the barriers between the traditional industrial chain, marking the beginning of the emerging industrial chain on the stage of history. Nickel structural shortage contradiction is expected to gradually ease, emerging industries also become a key variable affecting nickel price trend.
In 2021, the hot market of new energy vehicles led to a huge demand for nickel sulfate, and the nickel price kept rising. But since a sharp rise in nickel prices in March, it has become much less economical for companies to use nickel beans for production and the process is now loss-making. The economic advantages of intermediate products using nickel rise, and the demand for nickel beans is constantly compressed. In the fourth quarter of last year, the proportion of nickel beans used in nickel sulfate feedstocks was as high as 35 percent, compared with 9 percent today, according to the survey. At present, the proportion of production using high ice nickel is about 20%, and the proportion of production using wet process intermediates is about 51%, because of the low cost and high profit, wet process intermediates realize the continuous replacement of nickel beans.
From January to July this year, China imported 454,400 physical tons of nickel wet process intermediate products, equivalent to about 75,500 tons of nickel metal, a year-on-year increase of 126%. Among them, 43 percent were imported from Indonesia. According to the production situation, it is expected that the production of wet process intermediate products in Indonesia can reach 110,000 metal tons in 2022. The economy of nickel cobalt hydroxide (MHP) is highlighted, and the import volume of this product in China is expected to remain high in the future.
Stainless steel market downturn
The ternary battery market is crowded out
Dragged by the real estate cycle, stainless steel market performance malaise. Since March, the price of stainless steel "fell endlessly". Although the raw material end is also in the fall channel, but stainless steel spot prices fell more. Recently, high temperature power limit production, drag down the downstream operating rate, steel mills continue to reduce production. Affected by the domestic epidemic and Indonesia stainless steel on the domestic market squeeze, stainless steel production is expected to continue the trend.
Since this year, China's new energy vehicles continue to maintain a high growth trend, but the year-on-year growth rate of production and sales slowed down in July, the global economic downturn may also drag down the new energy market. At the same time, influenced by the low-cost competition of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the incremental market share of power batteries is basically lithium iron phosphate. From January to July, China's power battery loading volume was 134GWh, a year-on-year increase of 110.6%, but the ternary battery loading volume was only 41.3%. Ternary battery demand growth is crowded out, drag nickel downstream demand growth.
With the opening of the industrial chain barriers, the supply of intermediate products related to the demand of new energy gradually increases, and the demand for high-priced nickel beans will continue to be inhibited. The economic advantages of wet process intermediate products are prominent, and it will continue to replace nickel beans and become the main raw materials in the new energy market.
In the short term, the pure nickel inventory at home and abroad continues to be reduced, and the low inventory continues to support the nickel price to maintain the characteristics of high elasticity and high volatility. The disturbance news on the supply side or stimulates the nickel price to show the characteristics of staged rise. However, in the medium and long term, the trend of loose nickel supply is difficult to change. With the accelerated release of wet process intermediate products from Indonesia and the continuous return of high-ice nickel and MHP, the trend of nickel oversupply will become more obvious. At present, electrolytic nickel has a high premium on nickel-iron, no matter from the economic perspective of nickel bean autolysis, or from the economic perspective of NPI to produce high ice nickel, the absolute price of nickel is high. In the future, if the accumulation of nickel gradually formed, squeeze warehouse risk lifted, high nickel prices are bound to be unsustainable.
