The price of cobalt, which is closely related to the power battery and consumer electronics industries, has been on the rise.
The reference price of cobalt has stabilized and increased since September 30, after a cycle of volatility from February to September 2021, according to data provided by Business. By January 25, 2022, it was closed at 505,700 yuan/ton, up 32.52%.
In response, Ye Yindan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview that from the perspective of supply and demand, the recent rise in cobalt prices is mainly affected by two factors.
First of all, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, global shipping is generally limited, and there are major obstacles to cobalt transportation in 2021. The global cobalt stock level continues to decline. As of January 14, 2022, the total global LME cobalt stock level is about 2.51 million tons, down about 44.3% from the beginning of 2021. In November 2021, the domestic electrolytic cobalt inventory was only 150 tons, down 66.7% from the end of last year.
Second, downstream demand is strong. Gradual increase in the second half of 2021 shipments of electronic products, such as laptop shipments from about 10% during the first half of the above, 3 c battery demand increased, at the same time, according to the China association of automobile manufacturers, as of December 2021, the new energy car sales reached 3.521 million cars in our country, new energy automobile production and sales data for bright eye, Demand for cobalt from power batteries is also growing rapidly.
Zhou Yi, a researcher at Banyan Investment, said that in the short term, although the export of Congo, the largest cobalt producer, has been affected by the fourth round of epidemic in South Africa, which has led to a continuous shortage of raw material cobalt supply in the recent period, the situation is expected to ease by spring 2022.
"Stretching out the timeline, cobalt supply and demand is expected to remain tight throughout 2022, with the price center continuing to rise. After 2023, the overall supply and demand situation should ease with the production of cobalt associated with laterite nickel deposits in Indonesia." "Zhou yi added.
It is reported that the largest downstream demand field of cobalt resources is mainly batteries, of which consumer electronics batteries (such as mobile phone batteries) about 40% of the total consumption of cobalt, power batteries in broad sense about 30%, other downstream carbide and high temperature alloys, etc..
Zhou Yi believes that cobalt, which accounts for about 20% of the cost of consumer electronic batteries, has been under obvious cost pressure. Most of the cost of cemented carbide is cobalt, its downstream precision bearings, precision valve products cost increases with the rise of cobalt prices and the ship is rising; In terms of power batteries, ternary lithium batteries are affected by rising cobalt prices, but the overall impact is small.
"From a comprehensive comparison, as consumer electronics is mainly a stock market, the industry concentration is high, and the battery account for the total value of consumer electronics is not high, so the price of consumer electronics battery transmission is more smooth. "Power batteries are a fast-growing market with more participants than consumer electronics batteries, and the cost of batteries accounts for 40% of the vehicle's cost. There is a lag in the price rise of power batteries." Zhou Yi said.
Public data show that up to now, the A-share market cobalt plate (according to shenwan industry classification) three listed companies, hanrui cobalt industry and Huayou cobalt industry released the 2021 annual report, are expected to report the company's net profit growth year on year.
For the current market valuation of the plate and the value of investment, private equity holdings, research director at the net Liu Youhua in an interview with reporters, said the current plate overall valuation has been significantly undervalued, superposition of future price increase of cobalt is bound to improve enterprise profitability, cobalt plate is expected to be in valuation and performance improving dual driven out of the rally.
Ye Yindan agrees: "Since 2020, the growth of cobalt demand in the power battery industry has been questioned due to the disturbance of the 'cobalt-free' technology route. Currently, the cobalt plate is in a relatively low valuation area after the 'cobalt-free' pressure, leaving room for future growth. At the same time, cobalt consumption in the power battery sector is expected to continue to grow at a high rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period even if the 'cobalt-free' route is taken into account. Changes in working and living habits caused by the epidemic will also keep cobalt consumption in the consumer electronics sector strong and resilient."
