1.As one of the ways, so the market understanding is biased towards; On the domestic front, China continued to focus on maintaining stability and introduced a series of policies to boost market confidence, but the market is becoming more cautious as the end of the year approaches.
2. Fundamentals. In terms of copper concentrate, the import volume in November increased by 10.19% year on year to 2,411,700 tons, and the domestic TC quotation remained at a relatively high level, indicating that the domestic copper concentrate supply was still loose in practice. In terms of refined copper production, the output of domestic 11 electrolytic copper was 899,600 tons, down 0.2% month-on-month and up 8.9% year on year. Production in December is estimated at 887,900 tons, down 1.3 percent month-on-month and up 2 percent year on year. Production is slightly below expectations. In terms of imports, domestic net imports of refined copper in November increased 13.73% year on year to 348,700 tons, a cumulative increase of 1.32% year on year. In terms of inventories, weekly global apparent copper inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 239,000 tons compared with last week's statistics, among which LME inventory increased by 2,625 tons to 81,475 tons; Domestic refined copper social inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 76,200 tons compared with last weekend statistics; The social stock in the bonded area was maintained at 49,600 tons. On the demand side, the actual consumption of domestic copper in December is expected to decrease by 7.03% year on year to 1.180,900 million tons, and downstream demand has weakened in the progressive year.
3. Opinions. From the recent nonferrous overall performance, the internal and external loose atmosphere, coupled with the market too concerned about low inventory, still conducive to nonferrous price trend, expected trading still support prices. However, when the more gradually landed, whether it means that the marginal push later will decline, whether the market trading focus from strong expectations to return to the real fundamentals, will be the focus of late attention. The author believes that strong expectations need verification of fundamentals, and the policy transmission also needs time test. The annual market itself has strong uncertainties. When copper prices rise again, both smelting enterprises and downstream enterprises will remain cautious, and it is no longer suitable to pursue higher prices.
