After China implemented controls on the export of heavy rare earths, the prices of europium, terbium, yttrium and gadolinium products in Europe have soared in the past month. Buyers are trying to replenish their inventories, but they are facing very low inventories and limited supply options, while traders are being cautious about selling their current possible inventories outside China.
The monthly assessment of Agi's 99.5% content oxide dysprosium in Europe has jumped from $250 - $310 per kilogram a month ago to $700 - $1,000 per kilogram. The European landed price of 99.99% content oxide terbium has risen from $930 - $1,000 per kilogram in early April to $2,000 - $4,000 per kilogram. The increase and price level are both the highest in history for Agi's price assessment of these two products since it launched the price assessment in 2015.
The historical price of Agi's oxide dysprosium (gray) and oxide terbium (blue) in Europe over the past five years. Unit: US dollars per kilogram
Agi understands that in Europe and the United States, some sellers are quoting prices for dysprosium and oxide terbium much higher than the above assessment range because the sellers are testing the desperation of buyers for the supply and the price level they are willing to pay. However, no deals have been reached at these prices. A European source said that buyers seem to be gradually beginning to understand the potential severity of the situation, which may lead to the solidification of transactions in the coming weeks.
Affected by export controls, the offers from both buyers and sellers have risen rapidly in the past four weeks, but spot transactions are rare - partly because sellers are reluctant to sell their inventory that they may have difficulty replenishing, and also because buyers are trying to assess an extremely unstable situation. Several market participants on both sides of the Atlantic said that, despite this, given that these rare earths are often crucial to their businesses and the supply outside China is very limited, end-users may have no choice but to accept high prices. "It's currently a 100% seller's market," someone commented.
