London, May 22nd (Argus) - In the first half of 2026, the high-temperature rare metals sector continued to rise, with global tungsten prices surging significantly, driving up the cost of nickel-based high-temperature alloys. This aligns with the strong demand from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines (IGT).
Over the past year, the prices of refractory and high-temperature metals such as tungsten, rhenium, tantalum, niobium, hafnium, and cobalt have risen sharply, mainly driven by supply constraints.
According to the Argus Alloy Calculator based on primary metals and scrap materials, the cobalt-nickel-chromium-wolframite alloy Haynes 188 used for combustion chamber and afterburner components has an intrinsic value that has increased by 145% year-on-year to $38.17 per pound as of May 21st.
The intrinsic value of high-temperature alloys does not equal the current actual cost of producers, as there is a time lag between long-term fixed-price contracts and the spot market, and other variables such as processing costs affect it. However, the increase in intrinsic cost will eventually be transmitted through new long-term contracts to smelting enterprises, and spot purchases will reflect the increase more quickly.
The increase in Haynes 188 cost is directly related to the global surge in tungsten prices. The increase in tungsten prices is supported by factors such as China's export control, reduced mining quotas, the surge in demand in the defense sector, depletion of high-grade ore sources, and limited new capacity additions before 2027. The domestic ammonium tungstate market in China has started to decline from its historical peak, but the decline is limited. Western metal prices still receive strong support.
On April 30th, Argus assessed the price of 99.9% tungsten rods produced in China to the United States at $190-210 per pound, a year-on-year increase of 225%; on May 21st, the Rotterdam warehouse price of European tungsten ingots was $320-340 per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 214%.
Compared with alloys containing hafnium, rhenium, or tantalum with much higher intrinsic values, this increase may seem limited, but over a one-year cycle, the increase in tungsten prices is extremely significant.
The key hafnium alloys such as MAR-M 247 and C103 used in industrial gas turbines and aerospace fields tend to stabilize along with the stabilization of Western hafnium prices.
On April 7th, the Argus European hafnium index reached $13,500-14,000 per kilogram (customs duty-paid price in Rotterdam), and it has remained stable since then, supported by supply tightness and strong demand. On April 30th, Argus first announced the assessment price of hafnium in the United States as $6,125-6,800 per pound (13,503-14,991 US dollars per kilogram, after US customs duty payment), as it is supported by higher demand from US end-users and import tariffs ranging from 10% to 35% depending on the source country.
Although hafnium prices have temporarily stabilized, the high cost and extremely tight supply of hafnium in the Western market still pose dual risks to end-users.
From an absolute value perspective, the intrinsic value of C103 is $673.17 per pound, which is more than five times that of MAR-M 247 (131.04 US dollars per pound) and the rhenium-containing CMSX-4 (131.13 US dollars per pound). The main reason is the high niobium content. This year, the niobium price in the Atlantic market reached a record high, supported by the strengthening of African ore prices, strong terminal demand, and the supply tightening caused by Chinese smelters' early replenishment of inventories.
Currently, the Argus assessment price of niobium ingots in Rotterdam warehouse is at a historical high of $110-135 per kilogram; the factory price of US vacuum niobium scrap to the plant also reached a record peak of $55-60 per pound last month.
The tightening of Indonesian policies, the increase in raw material costs (especially sulfuric acid), and the tight supply of mixed hydroxide precipitates (MHP) continue to support the nickel price on the London Metal Exchange (LME), providing cost support for all nickel-based alloys. The price volatility of Class 1 nickel is most evident in Inconel and Incoloy alloys with less high-cost metals.
The 718 alloy of Inconel has seen a 25% increase compared to the previous period, but the growth rate has now slowed down, highlighting the overall price increase in the high-temperature rare metals sector.
After a surge in inquiries in the first half of this year, original equipment manufacturers and high-temperature alloy smelting enterprises are currently reducing their purchases of high-temperature rare metals on the spot market. Given the limited alternative supply, seller quotations remain firm.
