London, January 23rd (Argus) - So far this year, the price of European tungsten iron has risen by 8.3%, mainly due to the reduced supply of tungsten concentrate, leading to a global shortage of tungsten ore. This supply shortage shows no sign of easing and is expected to continue to exert upward pressure on prices in the remaining part of this year.
On January 22nd, Argus' latest assessment price for European tungsten iron in Rotterdam was $149 - $151 per kilogram, up 238% year-on-year and reaching a new high.
The initial upward trend began on February 4th, when China, the world's largest tungsten producer, expanded its dual-use military and civilian export control, including several tungsten products. Tungsten iron was not directly restricted, but the policy change drove the demand for tungsten concentrate outside China.
The global market is facing a structural shortage of tungsten concentrate. In recent years, the Chinese government has severely cracked down on illegal mining and strictly controlled annual mining quotas. According to data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China's tungsten concentrate production is expected to be approximately 126,214 tons by 2025, a 2% decrease compared to the previous year.
Therefore, China has increased its imports of foreign tungsten concentrate, exacerbating the global supply gap. Customs data shows that in 2025, China's total imports of tungsten concentrate and other materials were 22,653 tons, an increase of 38% compared to 2024.
It is expected that the Chinese tungsten market will continue to rise, as some mines will be shut down during the Lunar New Year holiday and the National People's Congress meeting in March. Additionally, in 2025, China's tungsten concentrate exports by metal equivalent dropped to 13,893 tons, a 27% decrease compared to the previous year.
Due to the supply shortage, European tungsten concentrate inventories are severely tight. On January 22nd, the price of tungsten concentrate in Rotterdam warehouses soared by 240% year-on-year to $900 - $930 per dry ton.
A trader told Argus: "I don't think there will be a downward trend because there is not much alternative possibility and the Chinese government will not reconsider the relaxation of control measures. At the same time, the strategic value of tungsten iron is constantly increasing, and the Chinese government has implemented stricter mining quotas and environmental inspection policies."
Customs data shows that from January to October, due to buyers' difficulty in finding raw materials, the import volume of European tungsten iron decreased by 7.4% year-on-year to 3,142 tons. During the same period, China's tungsten iron imports decreased by 9.1% to 1,888 tons.
Most tungsten iron spot inquiries in Europe are for small quantities as steel mills and foundries only purchase materials as needed. Even if there are larger, truck-load inquiries, sellers only provide small batches of supply because few market participants have sufficient inventory. Due to the expected continued rise in tungsten iron prices, enterprises holding raw materials are increasingly reluctant to participate in tenders. There is evidence that smelters are increasingly willing to bear higher concentrate costs, and most consumers have paid over $900 per dry tonne at the Rotterdam warehouse to purchase products.
"Everything depends on Chinese suppliers," a trader said, as most smelting infrastructure is concentrated in China, and only a few smelters abroad - Austria, Spain, South Korea and Vietnam - have limited capacity.
It is expected that prices will remain at historical highs in the near term, but the market may eventually slow down as more concentrate production increases. Approximately 20,000 tons of new ore capacity is planned to come online around 2027 from the Dahuotang Mine in Jiangxi Province and the Shizhuyuan Mine in Hunan Province.
