In 2021, the COVID-19 epidemic continued to spread around the world, while the United States continued to implement monetary easing policies. After Biden took office, he proposed spending plans including $1.9 trillion economic bailout and $1.2 trillion infrastructure construction bill. The overissuance of money was inevitable, driving up commodity prices including base metals. Among them, tin prices rose at the forefront.
In 2021, the price of tin in the international market showed a trend of unilateral rise, and the annual LME tin spot official quotation rose by 86%. The lowest price was $20,710 / ton, and the highest price was $39,875 / ton. The average price was $31,141 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 82%. LME stocks rose 8.6 per cent from 1,860 tonnes to 2,020 tonnes.
In 2021, the LME tin price trend can be roughly divided into two rounds of rising, from the beginning of the year to the end of September, the price rose from 20,970 USD/ton to 35800 USD/ton relative high of the year, in early October, a slight correction to 33400 USD/ton low, after which, the second wave of rising again, reached 39875 USD/ton at the end of November. Since then the shock runs to the end of the year.
Similar to the LME tin price trend, in 2021, the Shanghai market tin spot price also out of a wave of rising market. The Shanghai market tin spot index rose 95 per cent for the year. The lowest is 152,838 yuan/ton, the highest is 300063 yuan/ton, the average is 227,049 yuan/ton, the year-on-year increase of 87%. Stocks in the previous period fell sharply from 5, 574 tons to 1, 260 tons, a 77 percent drop.
Customs statistics show that from January to November 2021, China's tin concentrate import volume totaled 164,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%; Refined tin imports of 4,588 tons, down 71.8% year on year; Refined tin exports totaled 14,000 tons, up 239% year on year; Net exports of refined tin totaled more than 9,000 tons. China's refined tin production totaled 214,200 tons in 2021, up 11.07 percent year on year, according to the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association.
According to data published by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), in 2021, global reported refined tin production was 380,100 mt and demand was 378,800 mt, a slight surplus.
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook, released in January, noted that, following a strong rebound in 2021, global economic growth is entering a period of marked slowdown due to new threats posed by novel Coronavirus variants, combined with rising inflation, debt and income inequality. Global growth is expected to slow markedly from 5.5 per cent in 2021 to 4.1 per cent in 2022, with some negative impact on base metals markets, as the release of pent-up demand in the previous phase is completed and fiscal and monetary support policies are withdrawn. As for the tin market, from the supply side, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, as the world's largest refined tin exporter, has talked about tin export twice recently. In November, he told an annual meeting of the central bank that Indonesia could halt tin exports by 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry. In January, he said at the 2022 G20 Business Meeting in Indonesia that he would ensure that Indonesia could meet the world's demand for tin, nickel and bauxite, not in the form of raw materials, but in the form of finished or semi-finished products with high added value. I think that the outside world may question the strength of Indonesia's policy implementation because of past experience, but at present, this is very likely to happen. On the one hand, Indonesia's aggressive development of nickel downstream production since 2015 has seen results, not only creating a lot of jobs, but also having a positive impact on its exports and trade balance. The Indonesian government is expected to apply the success of nickel to other mining products. On the other hand, when Joko's second term as president expires in 2024, he is expected to follow the development model of the nickel industry and roll out industrial policies on all mining products, including tin, in which Indonesia is dominant, before the end of his term, thus becoming a highlight of his achievements. Based on the above two factors, if conditions are mature, the Indonesian government can fully advance the implementation date of the suspension of tin export, so there will be great uncertainty in the global tin supply in the next 2-3 years. From the consumption side, according to the international Tin Industry Association estimates, in 2022, the photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 16,000 to 19,000 tons of tin, and last year, the photovoltaic industry with about 14,000 tons of tin, considerable growth. Thus, this year tin market overall consumption will continue to maintain growth.
In terms of price, lunxi is expected to operate in the range of 40,000 ~ 48,000 USD/ton this year, and Huxi will adjust and shock in the region of 300,000 ~ 350,000 RMB/ton.
