On March 21, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum 2505 showed a high opening shock, the trend of the plate was frozen, and the 10:15 closed trading was 20845 (+10) yuan/ton, up 0.05%. In the spot market, the holder has a strong willingness to meet higher goods, but the downstream fear of high sentiment is significant, the procurement behavior tends to be cautious, and the market activity is generally active. Changjiang spot A00 aluminum ingot quoted 20790 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan, a discount of 25 yuan.
At the macro level, US President Donald Trump's statement caused concern. On the one hand, the US and Ukraine are about to sign a rare earth agreement, which may have an impact on the future supply pattern of key minerals; On the other hand, Trump signed an executive order to increase the production of key minerals, aimed at strengthening the United States' self-sufficiency in resources. In addition, the three major indexes of the US stock market collectively closed down, reflecting a slight cooling of global risk appetite, which has formed a certain pressure on aluminum prices. Inventory data show that the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to diminish, falling to 834,000 tons on March 20, down 28,000 tons week on week; Aluminum rod stocks also fell synchronously to 288,000 tons, down 10,000 tons week on week. Inventory destocking accelerated, indicating an easing of supply pressures. On the demand side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the average profit of the industry is large, but the recovery of the downstream operating rate is limited, and the demand growth is relatively moderate. The reduction of aluminum rod processing fees and the depressed transaction phenomenon further confirmed the cautious attitude of downstream demand. Opinion: The current aluminum market presents a pattern of long and short interweaving. Positive factors include: accelerated inventory destocking, high electrolytic aluminum production capacity, good industry profit, etc.; The negative factors include: the downstream fear of high sentiment, the cooling of risk appetite caused by the decline of the US stock market, the reduction of aluminum rod processing fees and the downturn in trading. In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate in the 20700-21000 yuan/ton range. It is important to focus on the actual changes in downstream demand and further policy disruptions at home and abroad, especially the impact of key minerals policies in the United States on the global aluminum supply chain.
