Argus Viewpoint: Congo-Kinshasa's Continuation Of Export Restrictions Will Keep The Price Of Cobalt in China Rising in The Short Term.

According to Agence France-Presse research, the price of cobalt in China is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term. The reason is that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has extended its ban on cobalt raw material exports until October 15th, and will introduce an export quota system in the coming years. According to the announcement released by the Strategic Minerals Market Supervision Bureau of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on September 21st, the country has decided to extend the initial export ban implemented in February until October 15th. After the ban is lifted, a quota system will be implemented, with 362,500 tons allowed for export in October, 725,000 tons in November, and 725,000 tons in December. The announcement stated that in 2026 and 2027, the maximum annual total amount of cobalt that the Democratic Republic of the Congo is allowed to export to the external market is 96,600 tons, including 87,000 tons of "basic quota" and 960 tons of "strategic quota" per year. This move has boosted market bullish sentiment, with many market participants expecting that the price of cobalt hydroxide will rise above the FOB price of $15 per pound in China by the end of this year. Some participants predict that the one-month extension of the export ban may push the price of metal cobalt to $20 per pound. A major cobalt hydroxide producer stopped quoting prices on September 11th and has not resumed yet. Only a few mining companies have inventories, while most other companies have sold out their inventories after the export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is the world's largest supplier of cobalt raw materials, accounting for approximately 76% of the global total supply. The implementation of the export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has significantly pushed up the price of cobalt hydroxide this year. The FOB price of 30% grade cobalt hydroxide in China as of September 18th was $14.10 - $14.45 per pound, having more than doubled from the $5.60 - $5.80 per pound reached at the end of February. Customs data shows that China imported 157,200 tons of cobalt intermediate raw materials in August, a significant 90% decrease year-on-year and a 62% decrease month-on-month. During the 1-8 period, China imported 74,500 tons of intermediate products, a 29% decrease year-on-year. During the 1-8 period, approximately 99% of China's cobalt intermediate raw materials imports came from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The supply of cobalt raw materials in China is expected to further tighten as imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo will not resume until October 16th, and the first batch of goods under the new quota system may not arrive in China until January 2026. This will lead to a supply shortage, especially in December, and the market will not be able to obtain supplies from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The raw material inventories of cobalt refineries are running out, and only a few factories have sufficient raw materials to maintain production until the end of this year. Market participants stated that the supply of alternative raw materials from nickel-cobalt mixed hydroxide precipitation and recycling is far from sufficient to meet all current demands. Market participants predict that the demand of the consumer electronics industry in 2026 will increase by 3-5% compared to this year, while the demand of the electric vehicle industry will remain stable. According to relevant estimates, the global shortage of cobalt raw materials in 2025 is approximately 25,000 tons. Market participants predict that if the Democratic Republic of the Congo strictly implements its export quota plan, the shortage situation will continue in 2026, with a shortage of up to 28,000 tons. Due to the continuous supply shortage caused by the ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the factory price of 99.8% grade metal cobalt in China as of September 18th rose to 270,000 - 280,000 yuan per ton, up from 266,000 - 276,000 yuan on September 16th. A Chinese trading company predicts that, given the extension of the export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the cobalt price may experience a small immediate rebound followed by a steady increase in the medium term.