May 22, 2021 Leave a message

Chile's Copper Industry Faces Its Biggest Institutional Challenge In 30 Years.

According to Bloomberg, Chile's copper mining industry faces its biggest institutional challenge since it emerged 30 years ago.


Prompted by the worst social unrest in a decade, Chile has just elected delegates to a new "constituent assembly" that will change the constitution in the hands of pan-left delegates, with a ruling coalition far smaller than the number to veto.

The country's stocks, bonds and exchange rate tumbled after the weekend vote, while copper futures rose.


The formation of the Constituent Assembly leaves mining companies such as BHP Billiton and Anglo American facing the challenge of stricter rules on water, glaciers, minerals and community rights.


"If you look at the distribution of representation, it's clear that Chile is looking for a new system to redistribute more of the profits of the mining industry to society, and that the mining industry will face more stringent environmental requirements because it's simply seen as a profitable and polluting industry,"

"Said Alejandra Fernandez, head of metals and mining at Fitch Ratings.


The new constitution is likely to contain provisions to tighten mining rights and increase environmental regulation, Mr Fernandez said.

Discussions are likely to focus on water becoming a state commodity of public interest, with possible changes to the ownership system and tougher penalties for use violations, she said.

Chile's mining industry consumes enough water each year to meet 75% of the country's water needs, according to McKinsey & Co.


However, mining companies have begun to reduce their carbon footprint and community engagement.

In the coming years, government agency Cocchilco expects to meet rising demand for water by building desalination plants, mining companies will turn more to renewable electricity and start using green hydrogen as an alternative to diesel.


The legislative and regulatory changes come at a time when soaring metals prices have sent profits to record highs.

Under the new royalty bill, miners will be taxed 75% of their copper sales if prices exceed $4 a pound, and the excess profits will be used to fund Chile's economic and social development.


While bumper profits can offset some of the impact of tight regulation, sky-high metal prices help explain the root causes of rising resource nationalism, especially as the epidemic worsens inequality in the developing world.


Despite the intensification of social and political conflict, there is still the possibility of negotiations, said Mariano Machado, an analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.

In exchange for adjusting water rights, for example, different factions could seek changes to the mining royalty bill.


"No one has enough authority to lead the process, but at the same time, no one has enough authority to stop the process," Machado said.

"There must be a strong relationship between the old politics and the new politics."


The difficulties facing Chilean mining companies are also contributing to the bullish outlook for copper prices.

Copper prices have doubled in the past year, in part because of concerns that supplies won't keep up with growing demand for the raw material in the clean-energy transition.


Chile's vast porphyry deposits and huge inflows of foreign capital have made the country the world's biggest supplier of copper since its return to democracy.


However, Chile's mineral resources have been declining in recent years.

This means that to produce the same amount of metal, more ore needs to be mined and more money spent.

It will have to spend tens of billions of dollars just to keep production going.


What is certain is that the constitutional process will take a year, and that foreign mining companies have signed agreements to be exempt from the tax changes until 2023.

But as the debate continues, the mining companies are reluctant to invest in new projects.


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