After the first day of low copper prices after opening high fall trend, the price fell back to 66500 line, spot trading limited recovery, spot premium open low.
From the macro level, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp as scheduled, but did not clearly indicate that this was the last time to raise interest rates and reserved policy space. Meanwhile, the primary and secondary objectives of monetary policy remained unchanged, and the inflation target remained at 2%. The Federal Reserve did not give more guidance on the later policies at this meeting, relying on data changes, the market focused on employment and inflation related data. Market risk sentiment is cautious; China's domestic manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction territory in April, with macro data echoing industrial data, with weak demand and high inventories of finished goods the main drag.
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, TC continues to stop falling and rise, and the certainty of supply increment expectation is stronger than the certainty of demand recovery. From the perspective of spot market, premium has fallen from the high level, and the expectation of monthly premium increase by cargo holders is disappointed. Under the background that downstream is difficult to return, premium has fallen to near flat water, and domestic destocking has further slowed down. The overseas end is still in the low inventory stage, but the cancellation of warehouse receipts fell to the low point, the continuous accumulation of inventory, spot discount degree expanded.
Generally speaking, the expectation of peak season in April fails, and the probability of a significant improvement in May is not large. The marginal situation of supply and demand in reality is becoming loose, the premium is difficult to recover, and the copper price is still operating under pressure.
