Nickel prices fell sharply in October. Since late October, with the continuous decline of coal prices, non-ferrous metal prices fell, nickel prices also began to turn downward. Nickel holdings in Shanghai rose 5,581 lots to 191,000 lots in October, while trading volume fell 2.8 million lots to 12.487 million lots. Lunni followed a similar trend, with open interest down 1540 lots to 214,000 and volume up 627 lots to 178,000 lots.
Nickel ore price high adjustment
As of the end of October, nickel ore 1.5%CIF average price of us $82 / wet ton. At the beginning of October, some mining areas in the Philippines entered the rainy season. It is expected that from October this year to March next year, the amount of nickel ore exported from the Philippines to China will decline significantly, and it is difficult to maintain a good grade. However, due to the impact of power and production restriction measures, the nickel and iron factory in the early stage stockpiled a large amount of goods in anticipation of the rainy season in the Philippines. Currently, the nickel ore reserve stock of the nickel and iron factory is relatively sufficient, but the expectation of tight nickel ore is not realized in time. The nickel ore port inventory is exhausted, and the supply is relatively loose, and the price is difficult to recover.
Due to the increase of electricity price, the smelting cost of nickel and iron factory is high, which takes advantage of the profit of nickel and iron, and the price is transmitted to the mine end to produce pressure, so the price of nickel ore does not continue to rise, but turns to high shock, which is expected to maintain a relatively stable operation in the short term.
As of October 29, the inventory of nickel ore in China's ports was 8.987 million tons, with a total metal equivalent of 70,600 tons of nickel tons, an increase of 1.497 million tons compared with the end of September. Among them, the inventory of the seven ports in China was 4.69 million tons. At the end of October, nickel ore large tired inventory, demand to maintain weak operation. According to the current inventory situation, the port inventory can meet the domestic demand for about 3 months, and the tight supply of nickel ore is obviously alleviated in this year.
China imported 5.68 million tons of nickel ore in September, down 8% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month, customs data showed. From January to September, it imported 33.12 million tons of nickel ore, up 21% year on year. The Philippines rainy season, nickel ore exports will gradually decline, China's nickel ore imports are expected to decline in October.
Nickel iron production continues to be constrained
After September, nickel-iron and stainless steel smelting enterprises continue to expand the scope of production limits, nickel-iron and stainless steel output declined. Data showed that in September, the national nickel pig iron production declined significantly, down 25.22% month-on-month. By grade, in September, high nickel iron production decreased 25.25%, low nickel iron production decreased 25.09%.
In October, national nickel pig iron production is estimated to be 29,000 tons of nickel, down 3.8% month-on-month. By grade, in October, the output of high nickel iron was 24,700 tons of nickel, while the output of low nickel pig iron fluctuated less, maintaining at about 50,300 tons of nickel. In October, the resumption of nickel and iron production may be less than expected, the production reduction in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia may become normal, in Shandong, in addition to the power limit measures, the price of auxiliary materials rose sharply, which also hit the production enthusiasm of manufacturers, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other places to recover is limited, nickel and iron supply will be tight.
Overseas market, in September, Indonesia's production of nickel iron was 78,000 metal tons, flat month-on-month, up 45% year on year; From January to August, the production of nickel and iron was 581,000 metal tons, up 63% year-on-year, maintaining a high growth rate. With the production line gradually put into operation, nickel iron production continues to grow steadily.
New energy supports nickel sulfate demand
In September, the output of nickel sulfate was 27,900 tons of metal and 127,000 tons of material, down 0.94% from the previous month and up 101.2% year on year. Among them, the output of battery grade nickel sulfate is 26,200 tons of nickel, plating grade nickel sulfate production is 0.1,700 tons of nickel. In September, nickel bean (powder) autolysis accounted for about 50%, raw material accounted for about 27%, waste material accounted for about 18%, the rest is crude nickel sulfate. In late September, affected by power rationing in Hunan, Guangdong and other regions, the output of some integrated manufacturers declined. But the overall impact of nickel sulfate production is small, east China smelter still has new capacity. In October, power rationing resumed slowly in Hunan, but the situation of power rationing was still serious in Guangdong and Zhejiang, and the consumption of nickel sulfate was low, which had little impact. In October, nickel sulfate production increased by 6.87% month-on-month to 29,800 tons of nickel, up 75.32% year on year. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that in September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 353,000 and 357,000 respectively, up 14.5% and 11.4% month-on-month, and both increased 1.5 times year-on-year. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.166 million and 2.157 million respectively, up 1.8 times and 1.9 times year-on-year. From January to September, the penetration rate has increased to 11.6%.
Qingshan Group's high nickel matte project, which has attracted much attention from the market, will also be opened. According to the author, due to objective reasons, the project has been postponed for one month. At the same time, considering the current price difference between electrolyzed nickel and nickel iron is almost upside down, the author believes that the short-term high nickel matte project is only supplied as planned, and it is difficult to release in large quantities. In the future, if the price of electrolytic nickel and nickel iron again appears high price difference, it is possible to drive enterprises large-scale commercial transport.
Market outlook
The production of high nickel matte project is limited, and the Philippines has entered the rainy season, which reduces the expectation of future mine supply. However, under the production restriction measures, the demand for nickel iron ore decreases, the port inventory keeps rising, and the mine end is difficult to suppress the supply chain. From the perspective of nickel and iron end, the production of nickel and iron in Indonesia slowed down, coupled with the growth of local stainless steel production makes its export to China limited, the domestic supply of nickel and iron declined, and the power limit and production limit measures lead to the domestic supply and demand of nickel and iron double weak, the price maintains a relative balance, it is difficult to have a trend change. Downstream, stainless steel production limit continues, production is expected to be limited in October, the future focus on the progress of production limit policy. New energy market is still good, support nickel demand to maintain high prosperity, in the coal price sharply down drag on the whole non-ferrous metal market, nickel price is still near 140,000 / ton support, the decline is limited. In addition, qingshan High nickel project delay for a month, the current price of electrolytic nickel and nickel iron upside down, so the market on the project is greatly reduced. Overall, nickel fundamentals are relatively strong.
