In the near future, nickel prices appear high downward trend. Risk aversion in global financial markets rose again on Wednesday, with the DOLLAR soaring and Shanghai nickel prices easing after Moderna's CEO warned that vaccines against Omicron would be "significantly less effective" and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was considering an early tapering of its bond-buying program.
Tight supply improved
Nickel ore, as of November 26, the national port nickel ore inventory of 9.347 million tons, a weekly drop of 1.21%, year-on-year growth of 1.18%. Since November, nickel ore inventory continued to rise, and the current domestic nickel iron plant limited operation also led to nickel ore inventory compared with the same period last year. Nickel prices held steady at 1.5% laterite nickel in the Philippines, although demand weakened due to rainy season in the Philippines.
Nickel iron, as of November 30, the domestic average price of high nickel pig iron is 1445 yuan per nickel point, the recent price continues to fall. Intraday trading volume was also light, mainly due to weak downstream demand. Stainless steel downstream orders reduced, spot prices repeatedly callback, the acceptance of high raw materials reduced, raw material prices are under pressure. At the same time, the economy of scrap stainless steel in the current market is better, thus reducing the purchase demand of nickel iron steel mills. The supply side cost is still high, and the willingness of price adjustment is strong. However, both raw materials and electricity prices have the phenomenon of callback, and the cost support is weakening. In the short term, nickel-iron still has the possibility of downward adjustment.
Electrolytic nickel, in October, the national electrolytic nickel output of about 14,500 tons, a sequential growth of 1.48%, output compared with September increased by about 212 tons, operating rate reached 66%. In fact, October production was not affected by power cuts in Gansu, gansu smelter output was relatively stable. From this point of view, domestic smelter production is stable at present.
In terms of high nickel matte, the production of high nickel matte in Indonesia is expected to reach 300,000 metal tons per year. Greenmather said on Nov. 29 that it plans to start operations at its Greenmather Project in Indonesia in early 2022, significantly ahead of its original target of late 2022, further easing the supply of nickel sulfate feedstock. Norilsk and Vale also raised their nickel production plans for 2022 from 2021.
Overall consumption remains weak
In terms of nickel sulfate, due to poor consumer demand, a nickel sulfate factory in East China is scheduled to start maintenance in December, which will last half a month and affect about 150 tons of metal. And on November 30, a nickel sulphate plant in China also announced that it would start its annual routine overhaul at the end of November. The overhaul is expected to take half a month to a month and is expected to affect 200-350 tons of metal. At present, nickel sulfate profit is not good, the downstream is difficult to accept the high price, both sides continue to play the game, many nickel sulfate manufacturers plan to carry out maintenance at the end of November or early December, short-term nickel demand weakened.
