According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on April 21, estimated U.S. coal production for the second week of April (week ended April 16) was 10.5049 million short tons (9.53 million tons), down 6.52% from the previous week and 2.07% from a year ago.
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In the week, estimated coal production in Wyoming and Montana was 4.9427 million short tons, down 5.64 percent from the previous week and up 0.38 percent from a year earlier, data showed.
For the week, Illinois coal production was estimated at 711,900 short tons, down 5.83 percent from the previous week and up 14.63 percent from a year ago. Appalachian coal production was estimated at 2.873,900 short tons, down 8.58% from the previous week and up 7.85% from a year ago.
Industry insiders said, low inventory and supply shortages continue to support nickel prices, and due to the recent logistics difficulties in Shanghai and surrounding areas, resulting in an unbalanced increase in the spot purchase area premium, electrolytic nickel spot premium significantly rose, but also boost Shanghai nickel plate to maintain high shock.
It has been more than a month since the lunni forced position event shocked the global financial market. Shanghai nickel gradually stabilized and recovered from the new record high to 205,000 yuan, and then rose continuously, rising nearly 20% in just one week. Such a fierce roller coaster market made investors "dizzy". Industry insiders said, low inventory and supply shortages continue to give nickel price support, and due to the recent logistics in Shanghai and its surrounding areas, resulting in spot procurement area premium imbalance, electrolytic nickel spot premium significantly rose, but also boost the disk to maintain high shock.
Structural contradictions are still unresolved Shanghai nickel rose sharply
For recent nickel prices soared, non-ferrous new futures analyst about yao told xinhua finance, in the world of pure nickel stocks at historic lows, pure nickel short-term hard to ease shortages background, the domestic since mid-march inside and outside the plate upside down sharply spreads, import losses above ten thousand yuan/ton, plus pure nickel import customs clearance co., LTD., makes the shortage of domestic supply of pure nickel further. "Previously, due to the sharp fluctuation of nickel price and the impact of the epidemic, domestic logistics and transportation were not smooth, and nickel downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory, which has been mostly exhausted."
Data show that the recent domestic electrolytic nickel as a whole to maintain a very low inventory of less than 5000 tons, of which Shanghai inventory accounted for more than 3/4. Besides Shanghai, most of the inventory is concentrated in Jiangsu province, which has been destocking recently.
According to SMM's investigation, due to the epidemic in southern China, it is still difficult to pick up goods and transport them. Downstream factories generally pick up goods from northern warehouses, leading to a shortage of pure nickel supplies in northern China and a general increase in spot premium. Founder intermediate futures in the research report pointed out that the regional discount imbalance intensified the nickel supply tension, superimposed domestic electrolytic nickel production, so that the spot premium to maintain a strong situation. At the same time, logistics is not smooth, but also to nickel pig iron production and raw material transportation, etc., the formation of supply and demand disturbance. In the later stage, if the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places improves, the shortage of pure nickel supply in north China may be alleviated to a certain extent. However, the substantial shortage of pure nickel supply still needs to be solved by increasing imports.
In addition, Li Yaoyao also said that last week the country took measures to improve the domestic transportation, downstream replenishment expectations are strong, coupled with domestic social finance data exceeded expectations, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio and a series of good news, making the market macro sentiment warming, nickel prices also climbed sharply.
The influence of lunni confining event is still lingering
LME nickel trading has not returned to normal, although the lune incident has come to an end. In addition to the trading hours have not fully recovered, volume has also shrunk substantially. "When Shanghai nickel fluctuates sharply, lunni only fluctuates within a narrow range of 33,000 yuan/ton and has lost its role as a pricing benchmark." About yao, according to the analysis of electrolytic nickel and nickel products imported in LME prices as a valuation benchmark, and nickel trading back to normal and some overseas companies accept Shanghai nickel as a valuation benchmark all will take time, nickel and Shanghai nickel fluctuations are not synchronized, and short-term will be a certain influence on electrolytic nickel and nickel products' import, causing domestic nickel element in short supply.
Institute of nonferrous strategy and enterprise risk management senior researcher Zhou Weigang said that the current nickel price game is more intense. From the LME positions and spot data, the concentration of short positions in recent months and the next month is still high, and the corresponding long positions are mainly concentrated in the hands of one or two counterparties. At the same time, the concentration of warehouse orders is very high, and the condition of forcing short positions still exists under the condition of spot resources shortage.
Fundamentals do not support nickel prices for a long - term continued high
On the supply side, According to Li Yaoyao, with the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, nickel ore shipments will gradually increase, and domestic nickel and iron mills are expected to continue to increase output driven by high profits. In addition, driven by high profits, the output of new nickel projects in Indonesia is gradually released, and the increase of high nickel matte production will alleviate the shortage of nickel bean supply. According to the data of Chinese customs, the import of nickel matte (high nickel matte) in China in March was 10,500 tons, an increase of 247% from the previous month and 130% from the same period last year. The global nickel supply shortage is expected to improve in the second quarter from the first.
Conversely, the demand side, under the pressure of high nickel, nickel downstream demand is facing contraction. Founder futures said that under the squeeze of the current raw material end, nickel salt plant due to profit losses and active production cuts, weak terminal consumption passive reduction, the market downturn. Some salt plants with higher costs decided to suspend production because of profit inversion. And the front drive factory is also affected by the three battery demand reduction, the scale of production reduction is also relatively large. At present, the price acceptance of nickel salt is still difficult to increase substantially. Repair process or mainly for nickel salt raw end concession. In addition, because nickel bean dissolve profit is currently in a more serious inverted state, nickel bean demand is very weak. At the same time, stainless steel market trading atmosphere is relatively light. Due to the epidemic restriction of logistics, the stainless steel inventory continues to accumulate in recent weeks, causing certain pressure on the stainless steel price, and the high cost of raw materials makes the 300 series stainless steel production loss. In April, the steel factory has the possibility to switch to the production of 200 and 400 series.
Overall, the nickel market as a whole remains in a supply deficit in the first half of the year, with low inventories and continued destocking expectations acting as important support for prices. In the second half of the year, with the gradual industrial application of nickel matte, nickel supply and demand structure is expected to reverse. Fundamentals are not enough to support nickel prices continue to go high in the long and long term, nickel prices are expected to follow or high range shock operation.
In the first 16 weeks of 2022, projected U.S. coal production totaled 172 million short tons, up 4.9% from 164 million short tons a year earlier.
During the week, 61,550 carloads of coal were carried by rail in the United States, down 4,175 carloads from the previous week and 50 carloads from a year ago. So far this year, 987,900 carloads of coal have been transported, up 9 percent year-on-year.
