According to data from the General Administration of Customs on January 13, China will import 1.107 billion tons of iron ore in 2022, down 1.5% year-on-year, with the average import price of 767.8 yuan per ton, down 26.8% year-on-year. In 2022, China's iron ore import, volume and price drop!
Looking back at the domestic iron ore market in 2022, there are ups and downs after downs.
At the beginning of the year, similar to previous years, iron ore prices continued to be supported by the demand of steel mills for winter storage and replenishment, combined with the supply reduction of overseas mainstream mines affected by weather factors, iron ore prices fluctuated up from the low stage. Since then, the National Development and Reform Commission has voiced six times in a row to ensure the smooth operation of iron ore prices, iron ore prices stopped rising and turned downward.
On March 5, the two sessions established the annual GDP growth target of 5.5%, the macro sentiment warming, the end of the Winter Olympics, the continuous recovery of molten iron production and the resumption of blast furnace production on iron ore demand has strong support, March 8, 62% direct imports rose to $162.59 / ton, reached the year's high. Subsequently, the epidemic in many places in Shanghai and Shenzhen disturbed the normal production and consumption, and the high and volatile movement of mineral prices.
At the end of June, the National Development and Reform Commission continued to implement the policy of crude steel production, iron ore prices continued to pressure. In early July, supply supply tide events occurred, panic-driven decline, poor demand for finished materials, weak transaction situation has not changed, superposed real estate industry economic data continued to deteriorate, the market sentiment is pessimistic. Since then, with the gold nine silver ten peak season demand expected to be falsified by time, superimposed steel mill profit deterioration, October mining prices follow the continuous shock decline, crude steel pressure wind up again, the market mood pessimistic. On October 31, 62% of direct imported iron ore fell to $79.38 a tonne, almost halving from the March high, not only a low for the year, but also the lowest in nearly two years.
In November, the twenty and sixteen policies of epidemic prevention were introduced, and the major economic policies were implemented. After that, the epidemic prevention and real estate-related policies were introduced successively. Combined with the fundamental expectation that iron ore inventory of steel mills was at a low level, and the winter storage and replenishment were expected, iron ore prices continued to rise. In early December, the high market sentiment eased, steel mills small replenishstock, superimposed overseas Federal Reserve interest rate slowdown, the domestic central economic work conference positive expectations, iron ore price shock strong operation.
On December 30, 2022, the CIF price for the imported 62% powder ore was $117.4 / ton. After a year, it increased by more than $120, or 50% in two months.
On January 15, the official public account of the National Development and Reform Commission issued a statement, saying that some iron ore information companies recently reprinted false old news, confusing public opinion and causing adverse impact on the market.
The price department of the National Development and Reform Commission also interviewed relevant information companies recently, reminding them that they must carefully verify and be accurate before releasing market and price information. They must not fabricate and release false information, fabricate and spread information about price increases, or bid up prices.
In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission also plans to convene a meeting of iron ore traders and futures companies on Jan. 17. The theme is to remind and warn against illegal behaviors such as fabricating and spreading information about price increases, hoarding and price gashing, so as to ensure the smooth operation of the iron ore market.
From the beginning of the year, iron ore seems to have entered another round of "reincarnation"!
In 2023, the domestic economy bottoming recovery, demand is expected to improve marginal, macroeconomic cycle upward or drive the industry to improve, the reality of low inventory of raw materials for iron ore prices open imagination space, but with the mainstream mines at home and abroad to increase production and achieve production, iron ore supply is still relatively loose, shock may become the norm in 2023!
