Shanghai copper main month 2404 contract continued the overnight rally, the disc is strong operation. As of 10:12, the latest offer is 69650 yuan/ton, up 0.13%.
The Biden administration unveiled a budget for the new fiscal year that focuses on tax increases and Social Security
The Biden administration recently released its budget proposal for fiscal year 2025, which totals $7.3 trillion in spending, a significant increase from the previous fiscal year's $6.9 trillion. The central focus of the budget proposal is to strengthen Social Security, improve Medicare and raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations. The Biden administration hopes that through this series of fiscal measures, more public services for voters, tax relief for the middle class, and effective control of prices.
At the same time, the macro-prudential Bureau of the People's Bank of China recently issued a column, pointing out that the volume of renminbi settlement of trade in goods has significantly increased, and the ability of cross-border renminbi business to support the real economy has continued to increase. To further improve the use of the yuan, the People's Bank of China plans to strengthen the construction of cross-border payment systems and optimize the global layout of clearing banks to improve clearing efficiency and security. In addition, on the basis of risk prevention and control, the currency swap mechanism will better play a role in cross-border trade and investment.
On the industrial front, a worker fatality at the Radomiro Tomic copper mine, owned by Chile's state-run Codelco, led to the suspension of all activities at the mine. The accident has undoubtedly affected the production of the mine, which will produce 315,000 tons of copper in 2023. At the same time, copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have fallen by more than 30% since late December, a change that has helped offset the increase in copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
In the field of smelting, the domestic production of electrolytic copper reached 242,000 tons last week, a slight increase from the previous month. Although some smelters are gradually recovering from the initial impact, the relocation of large smelting enterprises has led to a certain degree of production reduction. Overall, however, production increased due to normal high production at other smelters. However, it is worth noting that the current extremely low processing fees may prompt the CSPT panel to consider a joint production cut.
At the consumer end, the current copper price shows a strong shock trend, but the new orders of downstream processing enterprises are not optimistic. Although the order situation of copper pipe, copper bar and other subsectors is relatively stable, but with the continuous rise of copper prices, the downstream market gradually showed a buying mood, and the demand for restocking has also picked up slightly. However, overall, the consumer market is still more limited room to boost. Downstream enterprises generally lack positive market-making momentum, the inhibition of high prices of copper on total demand is still significant, and the market wait-and-see sentiment is still dominant.
Spot data showed that copper prices rose today (Tuesday). Changjiang Spot 1# copper quote of 69,470-69,510 yuan/ton, the average price of 69,490 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
In general, whether it is the adjustment of fiscal policy at the international level, or the optimization of domestic monetary policy, as well as the dynamic changes of industrial, smelting and consumer markets, are having a complex and far-reaching impact on copper prices. In the future, with the gradual implementation of various policies and the constant changes in the market environment, the trend of copper prices will continue to be affected by multiple factors.
