In 2020, the world's major economies will "save the economy while preventing the epidemic".
The global economy plunged into recession in the first and second quarters amid a massive pandemic shutdown, then rebounded quickly after governments responded with massive monetary and fiscal stimulus.
The Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England spent $5.6 trillion on quantitative easing in 2020, according to Bloomberg Economic Research.
In addition, the People's Bank of China has stepped up its macro policy response. The prudent monetary policy has become more flexible, appropriate and precisely oriented. It has launched 9 trillion yuan of monetary policy response measures and created two monetary policy tools directly aimed at the real economy.
Despite the second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States after the fourth quarter, the pace of recovery did not stop, but the slope became flatter. Manufacturing PMIs of major economies in the fourth quarter all reached a new high within the year.
As of November, China's PMI has been above the demarcation line between expansion and contraction for nine months in a row, continuing a steady upward trend since the first quarter.
China's economy is back on track and achieving a balanced recovery.
While the PMIs of the US and Eurozone are also in the upward range, the overall manufacturing PMI margin is positive.
The picture
As the global economy was hit by the epidemic in 2020, the United Nations released data showing that the cumulative loss of global economic output between 2020 and 2021 will be $8.5 trillion.
The IMF's World Economic Outlook, published in October, predicted that global GDP would fall by 4.4% in 2020.
It predicts that US GDP could fall by 4.3 per cent in 2020, eurozone GDP by 8.3 per cent and India by more than 10 per cent.
By contrast, China's economy has shown strong resilience and is on track to become the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth.
The IMF expects China's GDP growth to be 1.9 percent in 2020, up 0.3 percentage points from the 1.6 percent it projected in July 2020.
In addition to the World Bank, several other institutions have revised up China's GDP growth for 2020, which is closely linked to the country's economic growth.
China's GDP growth in the first three quarters was -6.8%, 3.2% and 4.9% respectively, and is expected to reach 5.5% in the fourth quarter, a true V-shaped reversal.
The recovery in the first half of the year was helped by the resumption of industrial production and the government's stimulative macro policies and massive public investment. The recovery in the second half was more balanced.
Global liquidity will continue to be ultra-loose in 2021, with the development of new crown vaccines exceeding expectations.
At the last interest rate meeting of major central banks represented by the Federal Reserve last year, it was revealed that the main tone of monetary policy easing of major central banks would run through 2021, and the normalization of monetary policy of major central banks in the future would take time.
Against this backdrop, the world's major economies will enter a stage of full recovery. The IMF expects global GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2021, with the strongest growth in the second and third quarters.
The GDP of the EU and the US will grow by 5.2% and 3.1% respectively.
The UK, Japan, Germany and France will see GDP growth of 5.9 per cent, 2.3 per cent, 4.2 per cent and 6 per cent respectively.
China, on the other hand, is expected to grow by 8.2% in 2021, contributing more than one-third of global economic growth and becoming an important driver of future global economic growth.
