• U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with business executives on Tuesday to discuss uncertainty over wide-ranging tariffs and recession fears. The incident contributed to a panic sell-off that wiped out the value of US stocks, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling sharply. Investor fears of a recession have intensified, and the Trump administration appears open to the possibility of falling markets and a recession in order to achieve its broader policy goals. This series of events highlights the profound impact of tariffs on markets and economic prospects. In the domestic market, customs data showed a decline in imports and exports, while CPI and PPI in February were affected by the wrong month of the Spring Festival, and market risk appetite cooled. • Affected by this, the domestic copper shock weakened, the disk face correction pressure. As of 10:15, the offer price was 77,790 yuan per ton, down 650 yuan, or 0.83%.
• The spot market on the low trading heat slightly increased, the holder to see the plate fell sharply to adjust the price of selling for cash back funds, downstream low-price procurement increased, driving the overall market trading demand. • The average price of spot 1# electrolytic copper in Yangtze River was 77830 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the premium was 100 yuan/ton. • From the fundamental point of view, the tight supply pattern at the copper mine end continues, but the overseas mine end such as the First Quantum Group Cobre copper mine is uncertain to resume production, further exacerbating the tight market supply expectations. However, the combined copper production of the world's TOP15 leading mining companies in 2024 increased by 3.1%, which is less tense than expected. Among them, the output of copper mines such as Luoyang Molybdenum Industry, Tektronix Group and BHP Billiton increased significantly, partly making up for the impact of the decline in the first quantum production. However, in the medium and long term, traditional copper mines face the problem of aging exhaustion, while the global energy economy transformation and emerging industries such as electric vehicles have brought copper demand growth, and the contradiction between copper supply and demand is still accumulating. • In addition, smelting overcapacity and falling copper concentrate processing fees have also impacted the profit margins of refiners, which may force copper prices higher. However, the specific price trend of copper also needs to observe the spot consumption situation. Current electrolytic copper inventories are still high, only consumption really pull up, copper prices have more room to rise. • Overall, although Trump's tariff policy triggered market turmoil, leading to a short-term correction in copper prices, but the fundamentals will limit the short-term correction space for spot copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 78,000, and it is recommended that downstream enterprises stock up on dips to cope with possible market changes in the future.
