Africa's copper production is expected to grow slightly in 2020 despite the Covid-19 epidemic, S&P Global Markets reported on December 18.
As a result of the blockade, most operations of Africa's leading copper producers have been unaffected by the outbreak.
In addition, the number of new cases in Congo and Zambia is lower than at the beginning of the year and there are no signs of renewed outbreaks.
Capacity increases at Glencore PLC's Kamoto mine and Zijin Mining Group's Kolwezi mine this year will offset production losses from the closure of Mutanda.
Over the next three years, the Camotto mine will gradually increase production to reach full capacity.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. 's Tendent-Sentinel and Barrick Gold Corp.' s Lumwana are expected to report double-digit year-over-year growth due to improved ore grades and increased processing capacity.
Overall, Africa's copper production growth is expected to recover in 2022 with the restart of Mutanda and the commencement of several projects.
Copper production from the region is expected to reach 2.9 million tons by 2024.
Africa's copper production is growing fast thanks to a big contribution from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
In 2012 Congo overtook Zambia as Africa's biggest copper producer.
The Central Africa copper-cobalt metallogenic belt, located in the border area between the two countries, is the largest and highest-grade sedimentary copper deposit in the world.
The mine has a number of significant production projects, the largest of which is Kamoa-Kakula.
The underground mine, which will develop the Kakula and Kansoko deposits in the first three phases of its development programme, is expected to produce an average of 237,000 tonnes of copper per year over 37 years.
Jinchuan's Musonoi and China Nonferrous Mining Corporation's Kambove projects, on the other hand, are expected to produce 31,000 tonnes and 28,000 tonnes per annum, respectively.
Botswana will also significantly increase its production through the construction of the private equity Cupric copper company's Khoemacau project.
The start-up project is expected to begin production in 2021 with an average annual output of 62,000 tons over a design life of 21 years, and the expansion plan is expected to increase production to 100,000 tons per year.
Sanfire Resources' Tshukudu project has released its latest feasibility report and is now in the development phase.
The open-pit mine is scheduled to produce about 30,000 tonnes of copper a year for 12.5 years.
Copper production in South Africa is expected to decline in 2020 as the outbreak control has hampered downhole operations in the second quarter.
Most of that output comes from Hebei Iron & Steel's Palabora mine.
In addition, there is copper production as a by-product of many metal mines.
Once operational, combined production from Orion Minerals Ltd. 's Prieska zinc-copper project and Ivanhoe's Platreef project (approximately 28,000 tpy/year) will offset some of the mine closures.
In stark contrast, due to various factors, Zambia's mining industry has barely developed in the past few years.
The government introduced a new tax code in 2019: the minimum tax rate has already been raised by 1.5%;
When copper prices exceed $7,500 a tonne, the top rate will rise from 6% to 10%.
Repeated changes in the tax system will slow investment and hinder new projects or the expansion of existing mines.
Zambian mines' national weighted average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) is above 50 per cent of the cost curve.
Higher maintenance costs and labor costs are increasing, taking into account assets over the life cycle.
Regional exploration investment has also been on the decline since 2018, and while Zambia is focusing on grassroots exploration, few major projects will be launched in the next five years.
Still, mine profit margins have improved.
Copper prices will average $6,159 a tonne in 2020.
The regional weighted average full continuing cost will increase to $1.77 per pound due to lower mine costs due to currency depreciation and reduced mineral processing volumes.
Enterprises also quickly adopted measures such as capital retention or expansion of operation scale;
And the impact of higher royalties is less pronounced than first thought.
Consumption of refined copper grew strongly, driven by China's manufacturing, construction and auto industries.
And in developing countries like India, demand for copper will increase as the population grows.
As economic conditions improve, the refined copper shortfall will reach 220,000 tonnes by 2024.
Africa has ample capacity to maintain its production status, supported by medium and large mining projects;
But to take advantage of future market conditions, substantial investment and economic improvements will be needed to sustainably translate into increased exploration activity and exploitable assets.
