On Wednesday, Shanghai copper 2302 contract continued the downward trend of the previous trading day to close at 64,560 yuan/ton, down 1.69%; International copper 2302 contract showed the same trend, down 1.73 percent to close at 57,500 yuan/ton. During the night, the inner price of copper open low shock, the price center of gravity continues to move down. London copper yesterday also closed lower at $8251 / ton. On Tuesday, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot for the month of 2301 contract at premium 50 yuan/ton - premium 110 yuan/ton, the average price premium 80 yuan/ton, the premium fell significantly from the previous trading day. Copper prices fell sharply during the day, but the current downstream consumption is still weak, take goods sentiment is not good, the market is more cautious wait-and-see mood, intra-day purchase demand is limited; Holding merchant support price sentiment weakened, gradually lower premium shipping.
Macro: The Fed released the minutes of its most hawkish meeting in seven months. The December minutes showed that the Fed was worried that markets were too optimistic, warned that interest rates might be higher than expected, and no one expected 2023 to be appropriate for a rate cut. But the comments found the Fed's language to be unoriginal and unsurprising. This year the Federal Reserve Committee backed a rate rise to 5.4% before pausing, above the Fed's December peak. U.S. job openings fell slightly to 10.458 million in November, but remained strong and exceeded expectations for the third time in a row. ISM manufacturing contracted for a second straight month in December at 48.4, while the price index fell for the ninth straight month. The European Commission forecasts GDP growth of just 0.3% for both the EU and the eurozone in 2023, well below the 2.3% forecast for both in the spring economic outlook report. According to preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Federation, the passenger car market retail sales in December last year was 2.425 million units, a year-on-year growth of 15% and a month-on-month growth of 47%. For the year, the retail sales in the passenger car market reached 20.7 million units, a year-on-year growth of 1.8 percent. The federation said that the return of the car purchase tax to 10 percent in 2023 is an unexpected policy adjustment, which will bring year-end growth pressure on the car market in 2023, but will not lead to a year-on-year slump in the car market in 2023. Therefore, the domestic retail sales growth in 2023 is currently expected to be zero.
The latest data shows that the economic data at home and abroad is significantly weaker, weak reality is difficult to change in the short term. At present, the end of the year in China is approaching combined with the impact of the epidemic, the end of the actual demand is weak, coupled with the inventory began to increase, the marginal support for copper price is weakened, copper price is expected to continue to fall in the short term.
