Medium and long term contradiction: myanmar mine resource output decline degree.
Short term contradiction: absolute low inventory VS easing of supply and demand contradiction.
Our view: Tin prices rebounded on Friday under the influence of further decline in explicit inventories and market sentiment repair, with the main contract standing back above 270,000. At present, the supply margin is repaired and inventories at home and abroad are still at an absolute low level, and the inflection point has not appeared. Low inventories constitute a strong support for tin prices, and the short-term is expected to continue wide fluctuations.
From a variety perspective, China's tin ore imports remained flat in September 2021, and most tin mines at home and abroad will gradually shake off the impact of the epidemic and enter the normal stage of production in the fourth quarter. In terms of refineries, with the marginal impact of power rationed and the resumption of production in Guangxi Tin, tin ingot output in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by about 5000 tons. Overseas Malaysian smelting is also under repair, monthly supply repair of about 1600-2000 tons. Downstream demand in the case of reduced impact of power rationing has also been repaired, recent research shows that several downstream solder factories said that the fourth quarter consumer demand is more optimistic, downstream photovoltaic, semiconductor prosperity maintained high, demand toughness is still in. The recent supply repair dominated the market logic, but as an emerging industry, tin has a large proportion of the total consumption, and there is no large-scale mine production in the next two years, the medium and long term should not be too bearish.
