In the first half of this year, affected by copper spot supply and demand and futures prices, scrap copper prices appear to be substantially adjusted. Due to the fluctuation of raw material prices and low downstream demand, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is low, and most enterprises continue to suffer losses, with low supply and demand.
According to zhuochuang information statistics, in mid-June, domestic bright copper prices rose nearly 3000 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of January, up 4.76%. In the first half of the year, the difference between the highest price and the lowest price of domestic bright copper is 4200 yuan/ton, and the average value of the overall rise.
In the first half of the year, affected by market supply and demand as well as market mentality, scrap copper prices fell back, strong shock. The market for this year's Federal Reserve rate rise more worried, so that non-ferrous metal prices generally under pressure. Affected by the supply, the price of scrap copper overall high center of gravity, out of the Shanghai copper prices up and down constraints. Poor downstream demand makes it difficult to sell recycled copper rods at high prices.
From the current point of view, the domestic downstream industry resumption of production, scrap copper price is not obvious boost, the loss pressure of enterprise operation is large, it is expected that July-August, scrap copper demand is poor, the third quarter of the scrap copper price is weak operation. The price difference of refined copper scrap is not easy to open, and the substitution of raw material and finished product of copper scrap to primary copper is reduced.
In the run-up to the Fed's interest rate hike in early May and mid-June this year, inflation "clouds" in overseas markets continue to affect commodity markets. The Periodic interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve caused a domino effect. Higher interest rates around the world to curb inflation are likely to keep copper scrap prices down. Take Shanghai copper price as an example, the Federal Reserve two rounds of interest rate hikes, resulting in the main price of Shanghai copper fell to 61,000 yuan/ton. Combined with the law of the Federal Reserve rate increase this year, copper scrap prices are expected to fall in the future more likely.
It is understood that the domestic renewable copper capacity has exceeded 9 million tons, compared with the supply of waste copper raw materials and downstream demand, the renewable copper capacity is obviously surplus. At present, only half of the production line of some domestic manufacturers can run normally. Raw materials and copper rod increasingly fierce competition, the price "inside roll" serious. Because domestic scrap copper to reduce the total amount of imports fixed, scrap copper supply will become the main factor affecting the operating rate of enterprises. Affected by this, in the first half of the year, the operating rate of most reclaimed copper enterprises is low, and it is expected that the operating rate of reclaimed copper enterprises in June will continue to decline, and the "bidding mode of mining and marketing" will continue to the second half of the year.
At present, the supply and demand of electrolytic copper and recycled copper are weak. Facing the release of macro pressure, June - August, scrap copper prices will be weak, the price center of gravity down. June 17, copper fine waste price difference appeared negative for the first time, it is expected that the plight of renewable copper enterprises is difficult to get rid of in the short term, and even the loss of renewable copper enterprises in the third quarter will become normal, capacity reduction is the general trend.
